Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-30 09:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the RB2601 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study and formulate major issues of the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar remained low with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%; inventory continued to decline while apparent demand increased. Overall, tariff disturbances affected market confidence, and the risk - aversion sentiment before the long holiday led to continued reduction of rebar positions. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving downward. The operation suggestion is to maintain a bearish stance [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,072.00 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - RB main contract holding volume: 1,873,832 lots, down 52,807 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net holding volume: - 132,445 lots, up 38,386 lots [2] - RB1 - 5 contract spread: - 56 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report: 291,546 tons, up 15,608 tons [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 181 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,364 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,200.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - RB main contract basis: 208.00 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 70.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 778.00 yuan/wet ton, down 1.00 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 392,900 tons, down 29,200 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.6138 million tons, up 164,800 tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 1.225 million tons, up 7,700 tons [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 84.47%, up 0.47 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.88%, up 0.50 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar output: 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons [2] - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 45.26%, unchanged [2] - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons [2] - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 65.63%, down 2.08 percentage points [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons [2] - Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.05, down 0.28 [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters [2] - Commodity housing unsold area: 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 30th, 20 cities introduced 25 property market relaxation policies, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, which is seen as a new round of policy optimization for the real estate market and may bring positive expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" [2] - The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue rainstorm warning on September 30th. There were no affected tailings ponds in the area with over 100 - mm rainfall, and 29 tailings ponds in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi were affected by 50 - 100mm rainfall [2]