2025年股指期货三季度报告：活水破局势如虹，估值待盈风满楼

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the A-share market broke through the shock pattern and continued to rise. The external environment remains complex in Q4. The US tariff pressure on China persists, and the "rush to export" trend is unsustainable, putting pressure on the current account. However, the weakening of the US dollar eases the pressure on the RMB's passive depreciation, and the capital account is expected to continue to recover. Domestically, the conversion of expectations into reality is evident, but the continuous effect of the "anti-involution" policy on deflation still requires demand-side support, and the recovery of corporate profits is not yet stable. Policy and monetary effects will take time to be transmitted to the PPI, which is expected to turn positive in mid-2026, bringing about a resonance of profit and valuation in the stock index market. The index's range-bound pattern may continue, and the previous long IF and short IM hedging portfolio is recommended to be held. Allocation investors need to control their stock index positions, and long-term investors should focus on the progress of profit repair and policy effects [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Indexes Break Through the Shock Pattern - Market Review: In Q1, the A-share market continued the shock pattern since Q4 2024. After being affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff" remarks in April, the market recovered with the implementation of domestic policies and the easing of Sino-US trade frictions. In Q3, multiple positive factors supported the market, including the "anti-involution" policy, the continuation of the "rush to export" trend, the appreciation of the RMB, and the narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate spread, providing sufficient liquidity for the stock index market [9]. - Industry Performance: In the first three quarters of 2025, industries showed significant differentiation. Precious metals and related non-ferrous metals led the gains due to Trump's tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. As of September 26, communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics had the highest increases, while coal, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest declines [11]. - Stock Index Basis: The expansion of neutral strategies and the increase in the index dividend rate led to a larger discount in stock index futures. The injection of rescue funds and the active trading sentiment increased the trading volume of the A-share market, and the small and medium-cap style was dominant. The expansion of neutral strategies increased the hedging demand for stock index futures, and the high dividend rate of listed companies also contributed to the larger discount [13][17]. 2. Market Valuation: Focus on Earnings-Driven Valuation Digestion - CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes: The valuation levels of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have been significantly repaired. As of September 26, their price-to-book ratios were at historically low levels in the past 10 years [22]. - SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes: There is a divergence in the valuations of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes. Their price-to-earnings ratios are generally in the high historical range, while the price-to-book ratios are relatively low. This difference is due to the significant valuation recovery since September last year, but the improvement in market profitability still takes time [22]. - Index Crowding: There is a potential for short-term style rebalancing. The crowding degree of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes has narrowed, and the market's enthusiasm for the CSI 500 index remains high. The relative valuation of the CSI 1000 index has further recovered. The crowding degree difference between the CSI 1000 and CSI 300 indexes has reached a high level in the past two years, increasing the potential for mean reversion [26][29][32]. - Stock-Bond Cost-Effectiveness: The stock market does not have an obvious relative advantage. After the continuous rise since September last year, the stock market is at a low level in terms of the stock-bond cost-effectiveness indicator. Although the domestic interest rate cut window is opening, the relative valuation of the stock market compared to the bond market is still at a relatively high level [35]. - Valuation Summary: After the continuous repair of the A-share market valuation this year, the relative valuation advantage of the stock index market over bonds has weakened, and the current stock-bond cost-effectiveness is still at a low level. There is a differentiation pattern within the market, and the valuation repair is faster than the profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the subsequent profit repair to drive the convergence of indicators. The CSI 1000 index may experience a style rebalancing [37]. 3. The Effect of Transforming Domestic Expectations into Reality is Evident - Improvement in Financial Transmission Efficiency and the Need for Further Policy Release: In August 2025, the "gap" between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed, indicating an improvement in the capital activity and efficiency of enterprises. However, the structure of social financing shows that the endogenous economic momentum is still insufficient, and policies need to be continuously strengthened in Q4. The growth rate of social financing stock slowed down for the first time this year, mainly due to the high base last year, the decrease in government bond financing, and the weak demand for entity financing [38]. - The "Anti-Involution" Policy Improves Deflation Expectations, but Profit Recovery Still Depends on Demand-Side Support: The "anti-involution" policy proposed in early July is an important driving force for the stock market, but the policy's effectiveness takes time. The net profit of the four major index component stocks and the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size are still at the bottoming stage. The price level is still weak, and the recovery of demand is insufficient. The scissors gap between the purchase price index and the ex-factory price index squeezes corporate profit margins. The PPI is expected to turn positive around Q2 2026 [41][46]. 4. Signs of Asset Allocation Transfer Appear, and the Pressure on the Capital Account May Continue to Ease - Initial Signs of Asset Allocation Transfer: After the loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered in May, commercial banks lowered deposit rates, and some banks' one-year fixed deposit rates fell below 1%. The increase in listed companies' dividends and the entry of rescue funds are changing the asset allocation behavior of residents. Funds are flowing from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, and the A-share market is expected to receive sufficient allocation funds [50][53]. - The Change in the Dominant Factor of the US Dollar and the Easing of Pressure on the Capital and Financial Account: The US dollar's traditional safe-haven asset status is fading, and its price is now more influenced by interest rates. The continuous expansion of the US debt and geopolitical conflicts have eroded the US dollar's credit foundation, leading to a weakening trend. The weakening of the US dollar supports the RMB, and the capital and financial account is expected to recover [55][57]. - The Unsustainable "Rush to Export" Trend and the Pressure on the Current Account: During the Sino-US trade negotiations, the "rush to export" trend was obvious, supporting economic growth in the first three quarters. However, due to the high tariffs on Chinese exports and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" in the US, the "rush to export" trend is difficult to sustain, and the current account will face significant pressure in Q4 [59][64]. 5. Summary - The US's tariff measures against China have limited room for adjustment, and the "rush to export" trend is difficult to sustain, putting more pressure on China's current account in Q4. However, the weakening of the US dollar eases the pressure on the RMB's passive depreciation, and cross-border capital flows are expected to continue to recover. Domestically, although the financial system's transmission efficiency has improved and the "anti-involution" policy may marginally improve deflation in Q4, the price increase still depends on demand-side support, and the deflation risk has not been completely eliminated. After the valuation repair of the A-share market, the relative attractiveness of equity assets has weakened. The profit recovery is the key to whether the market's overall center can rise. The PPI is expected to turn positive in mid-2026, bringing about a resonance of profit and valuation in the stock index market. The style may rebalance, and the previous hedging portfolio is recommended to be held, while investors should control their positions and focus on profit recovery [65][67].