Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-30 10:24Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, supported by increased supply and high molten iron production for export, the fundamentals of iron ore are decent. The price is expected to show no strong trend and maintain a moderately bullish oscillating pattern. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. However, long - positions should pay attention to overseas risks [3][88] - The price range in Q4 is expected to be between 90 and 115 for Platts 62 and between 700 and 900 for the iron ore index [4][89] - Industrial risk management suggestion: interval trading [5][90] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 H1 Iron Ore Price Review - From January 15 to February 21: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported the price increase. The black market followed the stock market, and both domestic and overseas macro - sentiments were positive. Hurricanes affected iron ore shipments, and the spot was in short supply [5] - From February 22 to April 8: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipments returned to normal, and the relationship between the stock market and the black market diverged. Tariffs and anti - dumping concerns, along with the expectation of crude steel reduction, pushed the price down [6] - From April 9 to June 18: After the risk release, there was a temporary balance. The iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand was stable. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but then the market entered a low - volatility state [7] - From June 19 to the present: The iron ore price bottomed out and then rose. The reasons were the promotion of anti - involution and the repair of pessimistic expectations under high molten iron production [8] 2. Supply - Overall Supply in 2025: The supply of iron ore in the first three quarters of 2025 was tight at first and then loosened. The global shipment volume in the first three quarters was about 1.133 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.78%. It is expected that the shipment in Q4 will be relatively sufficient, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 1% [11] - China's Supply: From January to August, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 801.618 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. In August, the import was 10.5225 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [17] - Shipment by Country: Australia and Brazil are still the top two suppliers, but their shipment volumes declined. India's exports to China dropped significantly, while Russia's and Mongolia's exports increased [19][20] - Four Major Mines: In H1 2025, the four major mines generally overcame adverse factors, and their production remained stable or increased slightly. Vale and Rio Tinto are expected to be the main contributors to the incremental production in H2 [24] - Domestic Mines: From January to August, the iron concentrate output of 332 mines was 172.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. The annual output is expected to be lower than last year, with a year - on - year growth rate of about - 2% [48] 3. Demand - Demand Revision: The view on demand in the semi - annual report needs to be revised. Currently, external demand is the dominant factor. Domestic demand in infrastructure and real estate remains weak, while exports, both direct and indirect, are becoming the leading force in black demand [51][52] - Molten Iron Production: In the first three quarters of 2025, the average daily molten iron production was 237210 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.73%. It is expected that the production in Q4 may first remain stable and then decline [58] - Steel Mill Supply Adjustment: In the first three quarters, downstream steel mill demand was decent supported by exports. Building materials demand declined, while plate demand maintained positive growth. Steel mills adjusted their supply through production transfer [63][64] - Export Support: In the context of weak domestic demand, overseas exports are an important support for steel demand. Although the cost advantage is weakening, the export volume is expected to be supported in the second half of the year [68] 4. Inventory - Port Inventory: Due to hurricane disruptions and high molten iron production in the first three quarters, port inventory decreased. However, with the recovery of shipments and low steel mill profits, port inventory may start to accumulate again [73] - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the proportion of trading ore is relatively high [75] - Global Seaborne Inventory: The global seaborne inventory of iron ore is high, and the shipping speed has returned to normal, which may accelerate the arrival of iron ore at ports [77] 5. Valuation - Term Structure: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of far - month contracts has significantly shrunk. In Q4, attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts for reverse arbitrage [79] - Iron - Scrap Price Difference: Scrap steel has been less cost - effective compared to iron ore in the past year. The scrap addition ratio in blast furnaces has decreased [82] - Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore is more significant. If coking coal prices remain strong in Q4, it may continue to suppress iron ore prices [84] - Volatility: The implied volatility of iron ore options decreased in H1 2025 and then rebounded after the anti - involution trading in late June [86]