Shanghai Lonyer(SH:603003) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-30 10:18Report Overview - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 30, 2025 - Author: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened lower, fluctuated upwards, and then significantly declined near the close. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends. Near the National Day holiday, some investors gradually closed their positions. The futures price is influenced by both long and short factors, and in the short term, it is likely to continue to fluctuate. For the 12 - contract, low - long opportunities can be continuously monitored, and overall, it is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or conduct intraday short - term operations [3] Summary by Section EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if the position has been acquired but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. Recommend selling the EC2510 contract at an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [2] - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation (short spot exposure), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. Recommend buying the EC2510 contract at an entry range of 950 - 1050 [2] Core Contradictions - The EC2510 contract saw a reduction of 2161 long positions to 14922, a reduction of 2106 short positions to 15712, and a decrease in trading volume of 2414 to 17476 (bilateral) [3] - Bullish factor: MSC announced a price increase notice from the Far East to the Nordic route from October 15th to 31st, which has a certain positive impact on the market [3] - Bearish factors: The actual implementation of price increase notices this year has been infrequent, market expectations are relatively weak, MSC lowered the European Line quotes for mid - to - late October, and the new SCFIS European Line is lower than market expectations, pulling down the futures price valuation [3] Bullish Interpretations - MSC announced a price increase notice for mid - to - late October, with sea freight rates of $1320/TEU and $2200/FEU from the Far East to the Nordic region [4] - The Israeli military continues to attack the Gaza Strip, causing dozens of deaths in one day, and Hamas said it has not received any proposals from Trump or mediators [4] Bearish Interpretations - US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are scheduled to meet at the White House on the 29th. Trump said on the 28th that he hopes the two sides can finalize a Gaza peace plan, and Netanyahu said that the US and Israel are jointly formulating a new cease - fire plan, with details still under discussion [5] - MSC's European Line quotes declined in early to mid - October [5] EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 30, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 9.89 points, with a daily increase of 4.40 points and a weekly decrease of 145.03 points [6] - The basis of EC2512 was - 611.41 points, with a daily increase of 24.40 points and a weekly decrease of 242.93 points [6] - The basis of EC2602 was - 522.31 points, with a daily increase of 24.20 points and a weekly decrease of 241.63 points [6] EC Price and Spread - On September 30, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1110.6 points, with a daily decline of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 0.96% [7] - The closing price of EC2512 was 1731.9 points, with a daily decline of 1.39% and a weekly increase of 6.68% [7] - The closing price of EC2602 was 1642.8 points, with a daily decline of 1.45% and a weekly increase of 6.98% [7] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - For Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam on October 15th, the total quote for 20GP was $1144, a recovery of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1911, a recovery of $11 [9] - For Maersk's sailings on October 16th, the total quote for 20GP was $1090, a recovery of $5, and the total quote for 40GP was $1820, a recovery of $10 [9] - For MSC's sailings in the past two weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $855, a decrease of $60, and the total quote for 40GP was $1415, a decrease of $100. For mid - to - late October, the total quote for 20GP was $1245, a recovery of $330, and the total quote for 40GP was $2065, a recovery of $550 [9] - For Evergreen's sailings in mid - to - late October, the total quote for 20GP was $1355, a recovery of $300, and the total quote for 40GP was $2060, a recovery of $450 [9] Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1120.49 points, a decrease of 134.43 points (- 10.71%) from the previous value [10] - The latest value of SCFIS for the US West route was 921.25 points, a decrease of 272.39 points (- 22.82%) from the previous value [10] - The latest value of SCFI for the European route was $971/TEU, a decrease of $81 (- 7.70%) from the previous value [10] Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 29, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 2.020 days, an increase of 0.450 days from the previous day, and 0.362 days in the same period last year [17] - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.135 days, an increase of 0.252 days from the previous day, and 2.284 days in the same period last year [17] - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 3.218 days, an increase of 0.955 days from the previous day, and 0.447 days in the same period last year [17] Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 29, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.547 knots, an increase of 0.008 knots from the previous day, and 15.544 knots in the same period last year [25] - The average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.741 knots, a decrease of 0.088 knots from the previous day, and 14.924 knots in the same period last year [25] - The average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.291 knots, an increase of 0.068 knots from the previous day, and 13.437 knots in the same period last year [25] - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 20, an increase of 1 from the previous day, and 7 in the same period last year [25]