南华期货2025年度聚酯四季度展望：需求难言期待，基本面延续承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The proposition of demand overdraft due to pre - export has gradually materialized, and the off - peak season for polyester in the peak season is basically a foregone conclusion. The polyester segment currently faces little short - term pressure, with a marginal improvement in terminal demand. There is an expected seasonal uptick in October, but the sustainability and height of the demand are pessimistic. Starting from November, the production is expected to decline seasonally. With weak demand, polyester raw materials are entering an inventory accumulation phase, lacking upward drivers in the supply - demand balance [1]. - For MEG, the main theme in the fourth quarter is the contradiction between strong current reality and weak future expectations. Near - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, with port inventories at historical lows and a short - term tight liquidity situation. However, the actual tightness is less severe than indicated by low visible inventories, and the impact on absolute prices is limited. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation has a greater impact on valuation. With the new device coming into operation, the supply load pressure increases, leading to inventory accumulation starting from November. Excess supply is difficult to digest, and MEG will remain in a short - position until its valuation is further compressed [1][17]. - For PX - PTA, prices have rebounded recently due to the resurgence of the "chemical anti - involution" sentiment and marginal improvement in demand. However, the peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong, mainly showing seasonal and phased strength. The polyester load's peak depends on the performance of bottle - chip production. In the fourth quarter, many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If they are implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA will be alleviated before December, and PTA processing fees may be repaired. But the overall excess situation of PTA restricts the repair of processing fees [2][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and a weakening supply - demand pattern. In January, prices fluctuated at a high level due to low inventories. In February, prices rebounded slightly and then fell. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [3]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices plummeted due to trade disputes, then rebounded and fluctuated. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [4]. - In the third quarter, the "anti - involution" sentiment influenced prices. In July, prices reached a high and then fell. In August, prices rose and then fell again. In September, prices were under pressure due to the expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, PTA prices mainly followed the cost trend, fluctuating in the range of 4700 - 5350. In January, prices reached a high and then fell. In February, prices fluctuated downward. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [9]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices dropped to a low due to trade disputes, then rebounded. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [10]. - In the third quarter, PTA prices fluctuated widely in the range of 4500 - 5000. In July, prices were affected by cost and macro factors. In August, prices first fell and then rose. In September, prices were under pressure and then recovered slightly [10][11]. 3.2 Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - The significance of MEG's historical low visible inventories is diminishing. Port inventories are expected to remain below 600,000 tons before the end of October, with tight short - term liquidity. Domestic production has reached a high level, and supply elasticity is limited. With the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment and coal production inspections, there is limited downward momentum [18]. - The expectation of inventory accumulation continues to suppress MEG's valuation. The early commissioning of Yulong and the planned commissioning of Ningxia Changyi will lead to inventory accumulation, with an expected monthly inventory increase of over 150,000 tons starting from November. If the inventory accumulation expectation is realized, the current production profit may not be maintained, and the EG01 contract may end below 4100 [19]. 3.2.2 PTA - The near - term trading logic of PTA is that the peak season for polyester is not strong. The start - up of filament and staple fiber has reached a high level, and the polyester load depends on bottle - chip production. With the improvement of weaving orders and the reduction of polyester yarn inventory, demand will remain high in October and weaken seasonally in November. The "anti - involution" sentiment has stabilized the commodity mood, and there is limited downward momentum [29]. - The long - term trading expectation of PTA is that PX is in excess relative to polyester in the fourth quarter, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro sentiment. Many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA can be alleviated, and PTA processing fees may be repaired, but the long - term excess situation restricts the repair height. The 01 contract's processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 250 - 400 in the fourth quarter. The "anti - involution" sentiment will repeatedly affect the market, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee and the 15th Five - Year Plan [31]. 3.3 MEG Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - MEG's domestic production capacity has grown rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - capacity. Since 2024, the large - scale commissioning period has ended, and the industry is gradually moving towards valuation repair. Currently, ethylene - based production accounts for 62% of the total capacity, and coal - based production accounts for 38%. In 2025, the supply logic has changed, with increased production and reduced supply elasticity [37][38]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - Domestic supply: From January to August 2025, the actual domestic production of MEG was 13.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The average load from January to August was 69.2%, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Coal - based production has achieved profitability, but with the expectation of inventory accumulation, the valuation is under pressure, and there is still room for price compression [41]. - Import supply: In 2025, the monthly import volume of MEG has increased significantly year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. The import source is becoming more concentrated, mainly from the Middle East and North America. If India's anti - dumping tax policy is implemented, it may change the global logistics pattern [51][53]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In the fourth quarter, MEG is entering an inventory accumulation phase. Production is expected to remain high, while demand is not expected to be strong. There will be a small inventory accumulation in October and a significant surplus starting from November, which will suppress the valuation. The 01 contract may end below 4100 [60]. 3.4 PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - Domestic PX production capacity has expanded rapidly in recent years, and the commissioning has paused since 2024. PTA production capacity has continued to grow at a high speed. In 2025, new PTA capacity is expected to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The industrial pattern has changed, with PX supply being relatively tight and PTA supply being in excess [64][68]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA processing fees have been under pressure. In the first quarter, the average processing fee was 218 yuan/ton, lower than the same period in 2024. In the second quarter, processing fees were repaired due to maintenance and increased demand. In the third quarter, processing fees were under pressure again due to increased supply. In the fourth quarter, if maintenance plans are implemented, the structural contradiction can be alleviated, but the repair of processing fees is limited [70][71]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - From January to August 2025, PTA exports totaled 2.53 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The decline is mainly due to the new overseas PTA plant in Turkey. The export volume to Turkey has decreased significantly, and part of the export volume has shifted to other countries [74]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - The peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong. In October, there may be a small supply - demand gap if maintenance plans are implemented. Starting from November, demand is expected to decline seasonally, and PTA prices are expected to be weak. Processing fees are expected to remain under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [84]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - The peak season for polyester is not strong. Although there is a marginal improvement in downstream demand, high坯布 inventories suppress terminal purchasing. Filament and staple fiber start - up rates are already high, with limited room for further increase. Bottle - chip production load has been low, and attention should be paid to potential load - increasing plans. In the fourth quarter, demand is expected to improve in October but weaken seasonally starting from November, with average loads of 91.5%, 90%, and 89% from October to December [87]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In terms of domestic consumption, from January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.6%. Textile and clothing consumption grew at a low speed, with clothing retail sales increasing by 2.2% and textile and clothing products increasing by 2.9% year - on - year [103]. - In terms of exports, in the first three quarters of 2025, textile and clothing exports showed low - speed growth. Affected by trade disputes and macro - policies, export growth has been under pressure. In the first quarter, exports increased significantly, but after April, exports weakened due to the uncertainty of macro - expectations [106].