Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of crude oil in the fourth quarter are bearish, but it is difficult for prices to decline significantly due to multiple supports [1] - The price of crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak but difficult to fall sharply. The support level is around $60 - 62 per barrel for Brent, and in extreme cases, it may reach above $72 per barrel [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Core Views - Macro - level: The global economy shows a pattern of "weak recovery but no recession". The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in September, October, and December will reduce the holding cost of the commodity market, provide liquidity support for crude oil, and prevent a sharp decline due to macro - pessimism [1] - Demand side: Demand remains resilient as the macro - economy is not in recession. High cracking spreads of refined oil products and inventory replenishment in the US and Europe, along with global off - balance - sheet demand, form double supports [2] - Supply side: The implementation rate of OPEC+ production increase is difficult to improve significantly, and the incremental potential of US shale oil is limited. The actual supply increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the theoretical value [3] - Global pattern: The regional supply - demand differentiation will continue, with tight supply in the US and Europe and relatively loose supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific. Geopolitical conflicts may break the loose supply expectation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [3] 1.3 Market Outlook - The core operating range for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is $60 - 70 per barrel, with the price fluctuating due to short - term macro - sentiment and geopolitical disturbances [7] - Investors are advised to go long when Brent is at $60 - 62 per barrel and go short at $68 - 70 per barrel, with stop - loss levels set below $58 per barrel and above $72 per barrel respectively [7] Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the international crude oil market was affected by geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors, showing a volatile and weak trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] - In July, the market was driven by a mix of long and short factors; in August, it was first bearish and then bullish; in September, the market focus switched rapidly between long and short factors [10] Chapter 3: Key Focus Points 3.1 Macro - level - The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 (25BP in September, and expected 25BP each in October and December) will reduce the holding cost of crude oil, and the non - commercial net long positions of WTI have significant room for replenishment [16] - The inflation pressure in the US and the eurozone has not completely subsided. Crude oil, as an anti - inflation commodity, has room for valuation repair [18] - Attention should be paid to the risk of "policy effectiveness verification". If the US manufacturing PMI is weak and non - farm employment decreases, it may suppress crude oil demand expectations; otherwise, the OVX index may rise [20] - External pressure on the Fed has weakened market confidence in policy independence, increasing the "dollar credit weakening" expectation. The short - term crude oil price is more driven by macro - sentiment [21] 3.2 Demand side - In the US and Europe, the cracking spreads of diesel are high, inventories are low, and refinery capacity is constrained. The expected lower temperature in Europe in the fourth quarter will increase heating demand and support cracking spreads [25] - Global off - balance - sheet demand, including inventory replenishment in China, the US, and floating storage in Russia and Iran, will absorb 30 - 43 barrels per day of supply in the fourth quarter, slowing down the inventory accumulation [29] 3.3 Supply side - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 13.7 barrels per day starting from October, but the implementation rate is expected to be around 75% in the fourth quarter, with an actual increase of about 80 barrels per day due to capacity and policy constraints [34] - The incremental potential of US shale oil is limited due to profit and cost constraints. The output increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be less than 10 barrels per day [36] 3.4 Global Pattern - The global crude oil market will maintain a pattern of "tight in the US and Europe, and relatively loose in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific" in the fourth quarter, but geopolitical risks may change the situation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [40] - The supply from Russia is at risk due to short - term facility disturbances and long - term regulatory and tariff pressures. The restart of the Iran - Israel conflict may disrupt the supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [42] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Overview - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the global crude oil market showed a pattern of "supply expansion, demand differentiation, and increased short - term surplus pressure" [44] - On the supply side, OPEC+ completed the voluntary production cut exit plan and started to increase production in September. Non - OPEC supply remained resilient [44] - On the demand side, the global growth rate slowed down, and institutional forecasts were divergent. Asia - Pacific became the core of growth, and the demand for chemical raw materials increased [44] - There was a production - demand surplus in 2025, and the Brent price is expected to oscillate between $55 - 75 per barrel in the long - term [45] 4.2 Global Crude Oil Industry Chain Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil monthly spreads showed a significant differentiation pattern. Brent and WTI maintained a slight Backwardation structure, while Dubai and domestic SC crude oil monthly spreads were weak [48][49] - The regional spreads of crude oil showed a pattern of "strengthening across the Atlantic and reversing in Eurasia". The Brent - WTI spread strengthened, and the Dubai - WTI spread reversed from a premium to a discount [52] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil cracking spreads showed a clear differentiation of "strong diesel and weak gasoline". The diesel spread may remain high in the short - term, while the gasoline spread is difficult to improve [55] 4.4 Scenario Deduction - Base scenario (probability 60%): The fourth - quarter crude oil market will show a pattern of "basic supply - demand balance, macro - level support but lack of demand highlights". Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel [73][74] - Downward scenario (probability 25%): Triggered by excessive supply growth and weakening demand buffer, Brent crude oil may fall to $58 - 60 per barrel [75] - Upward scenario (probability 15%): Triggered by the resonance of sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic recovery, Brent crude oil may break through $75 per barrel [76] 4.5 Core Conclusions and Tracking Suggestions - The essence of the fourth - quarter crude oil market is the dynamic balance between the actual supply increase and off - balance - sheet demand buffer. Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel without sudden geopolitical supply disruptions or excessive inventory accumulation [78] - Attention should be paid to the risks of economic recession, OPEC+ over - production, and shale oil incremental increase, which may lead to a downward break of the oil price [78]
南华期货2025年度原油四季度展望：基本面偏空，多重支撑下难深跌
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-30 10:12