南华镍、不锈钢2025四季度展望：底气渐足，随势而动

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly oscillating strongly, with increased costs in each industrial chain link and firm bottom support. In Q4, the Indonesian nickel - ore policy is the biggest variable, and the new energy sector may continue to be strong. The cobalt price is expected to rise, supporting the MHP cobalt coefficient [1]. - For stainless steel in Q4, attention should be paid to the demand recovery trend. The continuous strength of ferronickel supports the bottom space, but the upward drive is insufficient. The end of Q4 usually sees a small uptick in demand. There is also a mild Fed rate - cut expectation [2]. - The expected core fluctuation range of Shanghai nickel in Q4 is [118,000 - 126,000] yuan/ton, with strong support at 115,000 yuan/ton. The core fluctuation range of stainless steel is [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton [2]. Group 3: Q3 Market Review - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly driven by multiple news stimuli. After the market reaction, the prices mostly returned to the oscillation range. High inventory and low demand constrained the upward movement, while the cost and production - cut expectations limited the downward space [6][7]. - From the beginning of Q3 to mid - July, the market was driven by macro and policy emotions. In August, sudden news from Indonesian parks and rumors about mine rights/quotas pushed the prices up briefly. In September, news stimuli and Fed rate - cut expectations affected the market, and the funds mainly took profit and reduced positions [6][7]. Group 4: Industrial Chain Performance Nickel Ore - In Q3, the nickel - ore market was relatively firm. In Indonesia, the mining pressure remained due to environmental reviews, and the supply was tight. In the Philippines, the production and shipment were at seasonal highs in Q3 but are expected to decline seasonally in Q4 [19]. - Policy disturbances in Indonesia may be the mainstream factor in Q4. New quota approvals are approaching, but supply release may be limited. The domestic trade ore price premium remains strong [19][20]. Ferronickel - In Q3, the ferronickel market gradually strengthened, with the price rising from 900 yuan/nickel point to 955 yuan/nickel point. The main reason was the increased acceptance of high - price ferronickel by stainless - steel mills [22]. - In Q4, the ferronickel market may be in a high - level oscillation, with limited upward drive. The supply may be affected by quota release and the rainy season, and the demand depends on the continuation of stainless - steel demand [22][24]. Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In Q3, the nickel - sulfate and intermediate market was mainly in a tight - balance state. The demand from downstream battery enterprises and the rising cobalt price supported the price [29]. - In Q4, the demand for nickel sulfate may continue due to the restocking needs of electric - vehicle and battery manufacturers. The price is expected to remain strong, and the new energy sector may support the nickel price [29]. Stainless Steel - In Q3, the stainless - steel market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the price mainly in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro and news stimuli, but the demand and inventory contradictions were not resolved [36]. - In Q4, the stainless - steel price depends on demand recovery, supply - side optimization, and policy implementation. The price is expected to be in the range of [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton, with fluctuations depending on production cuts and demand fulfillment [37][38]. Group 5: Q4 Balance Deduction - The profit game between upstream and downstream in the industrial chain is intense. The supply is relatively abundant, and the main variable lies in new - energy demand. The demand shows differentiation, with limited marginal increase in stainless steel and expected marginal increase in the new - energy sector [48]. - The supply - demand balance depends on the performance of stainless steel in October and the further development of the new - energy sector. The demand in October is optimistic, and the year - end demand depends on new - energy demand growth [48].