关注节后外围变量情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - This week, the stock market showed a generally strong trend, mainly driven by internal policy boosts. The PMI data released today had both positive and negative aspects, with limited market reaction. Market sentiment was generally positive, but the trading volume in the two markets changed little, indicating a still existing stock trading situation. At the industry level, non - ferrous metals continued to be strong due to industry information, with the rise of gold for hedging and supply disruptions of copper and cobalt as the main drivers. The technology sector, represented by electronics and computers, also performed strongly due to industry benefits, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising 1.69% today. Driven by the structural market within the week and optimistic sentiment, the stock index performed well before the holiday. Until next Wednesday when the domestic market is closed, focus on information related to the US government shutdown, US employment data, and the performance of major global stock indices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index continued its strong trend. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 0.45%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume in the two markets increased by 1.9949 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from August, achieving two consecutive months of recovery. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50%, at the critical point, with overall stable operation. The composite PMI output index remained in the expansion range [3]. - There is 1 day left until the US federal government shuts down, and the key negotiation between the two parties in Congress on the appropriation issue failed. According to Reuters, the existing funds of the US federal government will officially run out at midnight local time on September 30. To avoid a government shutdown, US President Trump held talks with the leaders of the two parties in Congress at the White House on September 29 to discuss a temporary appropriation bill to resolve the crisis [3]. - US President Trump announced a 10% tariff on imported softwood logs and timber, and a 25% tariff on imported cabinets, bathroom cabinets, and upholstered wood products. The new tariffs will take effect on October 14, and some tax rates will be further increased starting from January 1, next year [3]. Strategy Recommendation - After the holiday, the market is expected to quickly react to the variables that occur during the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.20 | 0.12 | 1.11 | 1.22 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.0669 | 4.7576 | 12.8556 | 21.687 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 5.5415 | - 3.8045 | - 3.1869 | - 6.7749 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.2156 | 9.9195 | 24.6757 | 35.1639 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 2.1993 | - 1.4682 | - 0.9846 | - 1.5617 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.52 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.35 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.05 | | Trading volume in the two markets (100 million yuan) | 2181.411 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (100 million yuan) | 1.9949 | [7]