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偏空因素压制能化弱势下行:橡胶甲醇原油
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-30 11:11
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract presented a trend of increasing volume and positions, weakening, and slightly falling. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower. With the geopolitical risks in the Middle East significantly cooling down, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons or 1.01% from the previous period. The storage and delivery rates of warehouses changed [8]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of full - steel tire sample enterprises increased [8]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.0%, the logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, and the weekly output was 187.27 million tons [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, and the futures profit of methanol to olefin decreased [10]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 126.81 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 32 million tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, and the daily crude oil output was 1.3501 billion barrels [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 415 million barrels, the Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.561 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 93.9% [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,030 yuan/ton | - 345 yuan/ton | - 480 yuan/ton | + 345 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | 2,328 yuan/ton | - 31 yuan/ton | - 53 yuan/ton | + 31 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 473.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 479.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.8 yuan/barrel | - 6.1 yuan/barrel | + 10.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][36]. - Crude - oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [42][44][46].