国内风险可控，外部环境友好

Group 1: Domestic Economic Outlook - The central bank confirms the economic recovery momentum and manageable risks, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies[9] - The focus of policy has shifted from "deployment" to "execution and effectiveness," aiming to fully utilize existing policy tools[10] - The economic recovery trend has formed, and current efforts should further consolidate and expand this recovery[11] Group 2: External Economic Environment - The correlation between the A-share market and overseas tech stocks has significantly increased, with potential valuation upside in core tech sectors like semiconductors and AI[14] - The "soft landing" scenario is the current main trading theme in the U.S. capital market, supported by AI industry trends and expected 50 basis points rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025[14] - Despite various risks, the probability of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy is currently viewed as the highest scenario by market participants[17] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks such as re-inflation, economic recession, and potential U.S. government shutdown are acknowledged[22] - The market's trading logic has shifted from "worrying about stagflation" to "trading on rate cuts," resulting in a simultaneous rise in both stocks and bonds[17] - Upcoming economic data releases, particularly the September non-farm payroll and CPI data, are critical for assessing the "soft landing" narrative[18]