算力激增推升白银需求

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is on an upward trend, with the US economy showing strong consumption and manufacturing reshoring, while China is shifting towards AI, and large - scale AI investments are expected to drive up demand for certain assets [40][41][42] - The large - scale investment in computing power is expected to push up the price of silver, and the demand for copper is also likely to increase due to large - scale power construction [49][82][85] - The Fed's new round of interest rate cuts will lead international funds to flow from the US and Europe to emerging markets represented by China, and the stock markets in emerging markets, especially China, are favored by global institutional investors [48][51][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Economic Indicators - In September, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, indicating continued expansion, and the service business activity index also showed a positive trend [6][7] - In August, the US import value from China increased by nearly 40% month - on - month after the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, and the competitiveness of Chinese goods has enhanced [10] - In August, the total retail and food sales in the US increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, and the wholesale sales reached a record high with a 6.2% year - on - year increase, showing strong consumption [13][16] - In August, the US capital goods import value was still high at $91.9 billion, with a 10.5% year - on - year growth, indicating the acceleration of manufacturing reshoring and "re - industrialization" [19] - In August, the US manufacturing backlog orders were at a record high, with a 7.1% year - on - year increase, and the service export value reached a record high of $101 billion [22][25] - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations [28] Chinese Economic Indicators - In September, China's Caixin PMI production index was 51.9%, indicating an accelerated expansion of production, and the purchase price of raw materials continued to rise [31] - China has issued an "AI +" action plan, and the economy is comprehensively shifting towards AI [42] Eurozone Economic Indicators - In September, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI slightly contracted, while the service PMI accelerated its expansion [34] Indian Economic Indicators - In August, India's manufacturing and service PMIs reached new highs, and both sectors have been expanding for more than three years [36] Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached a new high [38] AI Investment and Market Impact - Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI data center and chip investment will reach $2.9 trillion by 2028 [43][56][58] - OpenAI plans to invest about $400 billion to build five new data centers in the US, with a planned capacity of 250GW by 2033, and the power investment may be as high as $12.5 trillion [44][58][59] - Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment, and Morgan Stanley expects Alibaba Cloud to add more than 3GW of data center capacity annually from 2026 - 2032 [45][57] Strategy Recommendations - Asset Allocation - With the Fed's interest rate cuts, international funds will flow to emerging markets, and the Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to rise. Semiconductor equipment ETFs will remain prosperous due to the high demand for computing power. It is recommended to hold long positions in the CSI 300 index futures [48] - Gold prices are expected to rise as the US moves towards stagflation. Silver prices will be pushed up by data center investment, and copper demand will increase due to power construction. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures are expected to fall [49][80][88] - Stock Market Outlook - The CSI 300, CSI 500, and科创50 indexes are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter, and the Hang Seng Tech ETF is also expected to rise [68][71][74] - Currency Outlook - The offshore RMB is expected to appreciate under the pattern of trade surplus and capital inflow [91]