南华期货钢材四季度展望：曙光微露，动能欠乏

Report Title - The outlook for the steel market in the fourth quarter of 2025 by Nanhua Futures: A glimmer of hope but lacking momentum [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to show a volatile trend with a ceiling and a floor. The upper pressure comes from the current supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals and unclear supply - demand adjustment policies, while the lower support is due to the continuous resilience of export demand and the expectation of supply contraction [3]. - The fourth - quarter demand performance is crucial. If demand recovers, the high - supply pattern may continue and drive up prices; if demand remains weak, the risk of oversupply will intensify [7]. - The market is highly concerned about the implementation and enforcement of supply - side policies, especially the "anti - involution" policy [8]. - Although the market has not triggered large - scale negative feedback, the squeezed profit margin has sent a warning signal [9]. Summary by Directory 2. Third - quarter Market Review - In July, driven by the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy and the supply contraction caused by coal mine over - production inspections, the steel market rose. The low inventory at all links in the industry chain led to a bottom - up replenishment and increased speculative demand, resulting in a cost - driven price increase [4]. - In August, after the Politburo meeting in late July did not immediately introduce clear "anti - involution" implementation details, market optimism declined. The trading logic returned to fundamentals. High supply and weak demand led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation and price decline, showing signs of negative feedback [5]. - In September, the price premium from the "anti - involution" expectation was basically digested. The market refocused on macro factors. The cost support limited the downward space, and the market entered a volatile consolidation stage [5]. 3. Core Concerns 3.1 Fourth - quarter Demand Acceptance Capacity - Steel apparent consumption has been stable this year, but recent weak demand has led to inverse - seasonal inventory accumulation. Fourth - quarter demand is crucial for the balance of supply and demand [7]. 3.2 Impact of Supply - side Policies - The market is highly concerned about the implementation and enforcement of supply - side policies, especially the "anti - involution" policy and its potential impact on the steel supply structure and market expectations [8]. 3.3 Whether Negative Feedback Production Cuts Will Be Triggered - The squeezed profit margin has sent a warning signal. The market is closely watching whether negative feedback will form and lead to active production cuts by steel mills [9]. 4. Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - The recent strengthening of the basis reflects the market's pessimistic expectation of future supply and demand, but it is still in a neutral range in the long - term and seasonal perspective [10]. - The current core contradiction is the over - seasonal inventory accumulation caused by high supply and weak demand. The profit margin is in a neutral - high range, and there is still room for further compression [10]. - The current 01 contract coil - to - rebar spread is above the normal cost difference range. Although it is reasonable based on fundamentals, it is at a high level and showing a weakening trend, indicating a potential downward adjustment in steel valuation [11]. 4.2 Steel Demand Outlook 4.2.1 Real Estate: Yet to Stabilize - The real estate market showed a short - term recovery last year, but sales and prices have weakened again this year. The real estate end's steel consumption, mainly in new construction and construction, is still weak due to factors such as low developer investment willingness and high inventory [16][20]. 4.2.2 Infrastructure: Tight Capital in the Debt - Resolution Context - In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down. The power, water, transportation, and water conservancy sectors have all weakened. The current debt - resolution and "anti - involution" policies have restricted investment. The slow issuance of special bonds and the focus on debt - resolution and land acquisition have led to tight infrastructure funds, and the physical workload in the fourth quarter is expected to be low [23][28]. 4.2.3 Manufacturing: Domestic Demand Weakening, External Demand Resilient - Domestic manufacturing demand has shown a "strong - then - weak" trend this year. The "anti - involution" policy and the weakening effect of previous policies have led to a slowdown in domestic demand. However, external demand is expected to remain resilient due to China's product cost - effectiveness and the stable overseas demand environment [36][40]. 4.2.4 Direct Steel Exports: Demand Increment and Cost Substitution - From January to August, China's steel and billet exports increased significantly. The growth is mainly due to overseas demand expansion and cost substitution. However, there are risks such as export inspections and anti - dumping investigations in the future [43]. 4.2.5 Summary of the Fourth - quarter Demand Outlook in 2025 - From January to September, the overall demand showed some resilience, but there may be speculative demand in the third - quarter. In the fourth quarter, demand growth momentum is expected to weaken. Real estate demand will remain under pressure, infrastructure demand will be weak, domestic manufacturing demand will decline, and direct steel exports may slow down [57][59]. 4.3 Supply and Inventory 4.3.1 Supply Overview: Deviation between Third - Party and Statistical Data - As of September 18, the daily average pig iron output and scrap consumption increased compared to last year according to third - party data, but the statistical data shows a decrease in crude steel production. There is a deviation between the two [61]. 4.3.2 How to View the "Anti - Involution" in the Steel Industry? - The market has not achieved the rumored annual crude steel production reduction target. The "anti - involution" policy has not had a significant impact. Steel mills have high production enthusiasm due to good profits. The policy may be included in the "14th Five - Year Plan" for industry governance, but in the short term, steel supply will remain elastic [64][65]. 4.3.3 Whether Negative Feedback Production Cuts Are Needed? - Steel mills still have some profit margins and limited motivation for self - initiated production cuts. If demand remains weak and supply stays high, the market may enter a negative - feedback adjustment stage. The raw material cost support limits the downward space of steel prices [67][78].