南华期货2025年度纯苯苯乙烯四季度展望：供需转弱，估值难有修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the supply of pure benzene will increase both domestically and through imports. The non - styrene downstream demand lacks support, and the demand in the styrene chain is expected to deteriorate. Pure benzene will remain in surplus, its valuation is difficult to repair and may even be further compressed, which will also drag down the price center of styrene. [1] - For styrene, large - scale plant maintenance has been extended and multiple operating plants have reduced their loads. Supply tightened in September, and is expected to increase continuously after the new plants are put into operation in mid - to - late October. The demand is expected to be "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". From the balance sheet, styrene will maintain a tight balance from September to November, but its high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene make it prone to decline and difficult to rise. [1] - Price range judgment: BZ (5500, 6300); EB (6500, 7300). The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies on a single - side basis and widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene on dips for inter - commodity trading. [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, the styrene market first rose and then fell, with the leading factors for both the rise and fall being raw material pure benzene. [1] - In the second quarter, styrene prices fluctuated, and several significant rallies and declines were affected by macro factors. [2] - In the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene weakened, and the market fluctuations further narrowed. Under macro disturbances, the market mostly followed the overall commodity sentiment and cost - side prices. [2] - In mid - July, with policy announcements such as "anti - involution" and the investigation of old petrochemical plants, the macro became the trading focus again, and the market followed the raw material end to oscillate upwards. After the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the macro sentiment cooled, and the market declined. [2] - In late August, the terminal demand expectation deteriorated, the market's confidence in this year's peak season weakened, and new plant products impacted the market. The port inventory increased against the season, and the market broke through the support level and fell. [2] 3.2 Chapter 3: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.2.1 Valuation Situation - Pure benzene: At the end of the second quarter, it was expected that there would be a supply - demand gap of about 1.35 million tons in the third quarter, and the valuation might have a phased repair opportunity. However, in reality, the new production capacity was basically balanced, and due to weak demand, the valuation remained at a historical low. In the fourth quarter, supply will increase, demand will be weak, and the valuation is difficult to repair. [5] - Styrene: At the end of the second quarter, it was predicted that the profit in the styrene segment would be compressed, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene would narrow. In fact, the spread has been compressed, and currently, it is difficult for the spread to further narrow in the short term. In the future, the space for the spread to narrow or widen is limited. [5][7] 3.2.2 Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Outlook - Domestic Supply: In the third quarter, 1.44 million tons of pure benzene production capacity was put into operation, and the total domestic capacity reached 27.82 million tons. About 0.84 million tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 11.39%. As of August, the cumulative production in 2025 was 14.6787 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The monthly production in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 2 million tons. [10] - Import: In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly. The average monthly import from January to August was 460,000 tons, a 28.1% increase compared to the previous year. In the fourth quarter, due to the off - season of aromatics blending for gasoline in the US and the need for Europe to find a destination for its surplus pure benzene, the import is expected to be 480,000 - 500,000 tons per month, and the annual import volume is expected to reach 5.6 million tons, a 26.1% increase from the initial forecast. [15][16] - Demand: In 2025, except for styrene and caprolactam, the consumption growth rates of other major downstream products of pure benzene slowed down. The downstream comprehensive profit has been in a loss state for a long time. In the fourth quarter, the demand support from non - styrene downstream is weak. For example, caprolactam is facing high inventory in the industrial chain, and aniline is affected by anti - dumping and tariff policies. Phenol and adipic acid industries are in surplus, with only rigid demand. [22][27][30] - Invisible Inventory: In 2025, the port inventory decreased before the Spring Festival due to downstream stocking. After the Spring Festival, the high imports led to the accumulation of invisible inventory. In late September, downstream factories stocked up for the National Day holiday, and the invisible inventory reached a new high. [35] - Supply - Demand Balance: In the fourth quarter, the supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high, while the demand is weak, resulting in a continuous surplus. [37] 3.2.3 Styrene Supply - Demand Outlook - Supply: In the first half of the year, there was no new styrene production capacity, only a 90,000 - ton capacity increase from the expansion of some plants. In the third quarter, 680,000 tons of new capacity was put into operation. In the fourth quarter, two 600,000 - ton plants are planned to be put into operation, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 8.86%. In September, supply tightened, and it is expected to increase after mid - to - late October. [39][40] - Demand: In the traditional off - season of July - August, the demand for 3S was relatively resilient due to new plant startups and pre - locked orders. However, terminal white - goods demand was affected by policies and tariffs, and the inventory of downstream products has accumulated. The demand for styrene is expected to be "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". [46][52] - Supply - Demand Balance: From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward movement. [58] 3.3 Chapter 4: Core Concerns - Pure Benzene Supply Changes: In the fourth quarter, pure benzene supply is expected to remain high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unplanned production cuts in domestic and foreign plants due to continuous valuation compression. [61] - Regional Styrene Supply - Demand: After the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene plant, Shandong has a styrene surplus and has become a price depression. Currently, focus on the operations of major plants in Shandong and the regional price spread between Shandong and East China. After the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical's styrene plants in October, pay attention to regional prices and logistics changes. [62] - Near - Term Trading Logic: In the short term, the提货 volume of pure benzene ports increased, and the paper - goods price and Sinopec's pure benzene listed price declined. The market interprets the increase in styrene maintenance losses as negative for pure benzene. [63] - Long - Term Trading Logic: In the fourth quarter, pure benzene supply will remain high, and it will be weak without macro - level support, dragging down styrene prices. Styrene's supply - demand situation is better than that of pure benzene, but high inventory and pure benzene's weakness make it prone to decline. The terminal demand expectation is poor, and macro factors should also be monitored. [64][65]