宏观点评：9月PMI季节性回升的背后-20250930

Group 1: PMI Overview - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value of 49.4%, but still in the contraction zone[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, indicating a slight decline in service sector activity[2] - The composite PMI output index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic expansion[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Signals - The supply side showed improvement with the production index at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months[3] - The new orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating continued contraction, but new export orders increased by 0.6 percentage points[3] - The September export order index rose to 47.8%, while the import order index slightly increased to 48.1%[3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The price indices for raw materials and factory prices fell by 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, indicating a potential narrowing of PPI declines[4] - Inventory levels increased, with raw material and finished goods inventories rising by 0.5 and 1.4 percentage points respectively, likely due to production recovery[4] Group 4: Employment and Sector Performance - The PMI for large and small enterprises improved, with employment pressure easing slightly as the manufacturing, service, and construction employment indices changed by 0.6, 0.0, and -3.9 percentage points respectively[4] - The service sector PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, reflecting ongoing consumer pressure, particularly in retail and entertainment sectors[6] Group 5: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The report suggests a need for timely policy support as economic pressures continue to mount, particularly in consumption and real estate sectors[6] - Key upcoming events include the National Day and the Fourth Plenary Session in October, which may influence policy decisions[6] - The central bank may restart government bond purchases and is likely to cut interest rates in Q4, with fiscal measures expected to be implemented earlier than planned[6]