锡价暴涨能否持续？

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the tin market in the medium term, advising investors to adopt a long - position strategy [4]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The disruption in the Indonesian tin supply and the slow recovery of overseas tin mines, combined with macro - economic factors, have led to a shortage in the global tin supply, causing tin prices to soar. The supply is expected to remain tight before mid - October, and the tin price may continue to strengthen. The复产 speed of the Burmese tin mines may determine the supply elasticity of tin, and if the Indonesian crackdown exceeds expectations or the Burmese复产 is further delayed, the tin price may break through the previous high [2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Aspects Indonesian Supply - Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter (accounting for over 25% of global supply), has intensified the global tin supply shortage. The Indonesian president ordered the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines on September 29 and plans to crack down on 80% of illegal mining activities. The illegal mine closure may widen the global tin mine supply gap to over 8000 tons in the fourth quarter. In August, Indonesia's tin ingot exports were 3246.46 tons, a 14.39% month - on - month decrease, and exports are expected to continue to decline significantly [2]. Burmese Supply - The复产 of Burmese tin mines is progressing slowly. In August, China imported only 2091 tons of tin ore from Burma, a 27.72% year - on - year decrease, accounting for only 20% of the total domestic imports. Due to the rainy season, equipment shortages, and explosive controls, the actual output remains low, and the output increase is expected to be realized in November [4]. Domestic Supply - Overseas tin mine supply recovery is slow, and domestic raw material supply is tight. Domestic smelter operating rates are continuously decreasing. Yunnan tin smelters have been on a 45 - day maintenance since August 30, and Jiangxi's refined tin output remains low due to a shortage of scrap and crude tin. Domestic smelter output is expected to recover around mid - October, and the low LME tin inventory cannot be quickly replenished [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 93%. The weakening US dollar and the expectation of loose liquidity have boosted the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector [4].