PTA季度报：远期供应压力较大聚酯链维持偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX and PTA are in a downward oscillation phase, with their future price centers expected to decline. The demand data during the peak season is mediocre, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumption exports [2]. - The polyester chain is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to large long - term supply pressure. The current valuation of polyester is low, but there is inventory accumulation during the peak season, and the long - term supply pressure is high. Unilateral strategies are difficult to implement [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Overview and Strategy - Supply Side: Three TA devices were put into production this year, and one more is waiting at the end of the year. The upstream supply has large long - term pressure. In the fourth quarter, there are few planned maintenance schedules [8]. - Demand Side: Polyester demand data during the peak season is mediocre. The load recovery is slow, with only about 90% currently. Inventory has accumulated to a high level, and terminal orders have not recovered well [8]. - Valuation: PX is around 200 US dollars per ton, and the spot processing fee of TA is around 180 yuan per ton. The industry chain valuation is at a low level, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to an inventory accumulation cycle [8]. - Strategy: Wait for the 01 contract to reach a low level and then focus on the long - position opportunity of the 05 contract next year. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PX1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunity when liquidity increases [8]. 2. Market Review - The PTA market in the third quarter followed the cost of crude oil, oscillating at a high level and then declining. Due to over - capacity pressure, high polyester inventory, and concerns about the impact of pre - peak exports, the price continued to be compressed during the peak season, and the valuation continued to weaken [9]. 3. Production Capacity Situation - PTA: In 2025, there are many PTA device production plans, with over 10 million tons expected to be put into production throughout the year. The production capacity is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [23]. - Polyester: In 2024, the new polyester production capacity was about 4.5 million tons, with a growth rate of about 5.5%. In 2025, the planned production is the lowest in recent years, with only 2.05 million tons of production capacity put into operation so far, and the expected annual new production capacity growth rate is about 5% [26]. 4. PX Supply Side - Production: The cumulative PX production in the first three quarters was about 28 million tons, almost the same as the previous period. The supply is relatively balanced, and there is no severe over - capacity situation like PTA [32]. - Domestic Device Load: The average PX load in the third quarter was about 80%, a decrease of about 4 percentage points compared to the previous period [34]. - Korean Device Load: The load of Korean devices in the third quarter was not high. Although the logistics volume to the US was almost zero, the import from Korea was normal, and the aromatics import is expected to increase slightly in the future [34]. 5. PTA Supply Side - Production: From January to August, the total PTA production was about 48.5 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared to the previous year. The short - term supply - demand situation is still acceptable [79]. - Load: The average daily effective load of PTA in the third quarter was about 77%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the previous period. Thanks to the new device production, the supply output increased instead [79]. - Export: From January to August, the total PTA export was 2.53 million tons, a decrease of about 500,000 tons compared to the previous year [87]. 6. Polyester Supply Side - Production: From January to August, the total polyester production was about 52.5 million tons, an increase of about 4 million tons compared to the previous year. New devices have been put into production, and the load performance in the off - season was relatively good [91]. - Benefit and Inventory: The benefits of various polyester products are poor. The overall polyester inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, and most of the inventory is accumulated in polyester factories, with terminal inventory also reaching a high level this year [92]. - Export: From January to August, China's polyester export was about 9.6 million tons, an increase of 1.25 million tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of over 15%. The increase was mainly in bottle chips [99]. 7. Terminal Weaving - Weaving Start - up: The terminal start - up data is mediocre. After the holiday, the load only reached the historical median level. The actual situation is poor, and the order situation is average [118]. - Terminal Raw Material Stockpiling: The terminal raw material and finished product stockpiles have reached a high level this year, which is one of the reasons for the high polyester inventory. The future situation is not optimistic [119]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows data such as production, import, apparent consumption, and inventory changes from January to December, along with their year - on - year growth rates [148]. - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It includes data on apparent consumption, production, export, polyester consumption of PX, and inventory changes, as well as their year - on - year growth rates. It also provides production and import - export projections [148]. 9. Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis reflects the strength of the spot market relative to the futures market. When the basis is negative, the spot market is weak [150]. - Inter - monthly Spread: The spread sometimes provides arbitrage opportunities and can avoid unilateral risks [150]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: Open interest can reflect the ratio of real to virtual positions and may affect delivery. Trading volume reflects the activity of the main contract [150].