瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For corn, as the new - season corn is gradually coming onto the market, it still restricts the futures price. A bearish view is maintained, and it is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [2][3] - For corn starch, although there was a slight rebound at low levels recently, the demand support is insufficient. A bearish view is also maintained, and it is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2468 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2143 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton [2] - Futures positions of active contracts: 596123 hands for yellow corn, down 44063 hands; 150741 hands for corn starch, down 13614 hands [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 30523 hands for corn, up 29 hands; - 37380 hands for corn starch, up 29 hands [2] - Registered warehouse receipts: 21549 hands for yellow corn, unchanged; 8028 hands for corn starch, down 161 hands [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 358 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 421.5 cents/bushel, unchanged; CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions (weekly) are 15017 contracts, down 51186 contracts [2] 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2368.63 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1943.7 yuan/ton, down 3.51 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas: 425.26 million hectares for the US, 35.89 million hectares for Brazil, 22.6 million hectares for Argentina, 44.3 million hectares for China [2] - Forecasted yields: 168.14 billion bushels for the US in 2025/26, 131 million tons for Brazil, 53 million tons for Argentina, 295 million tons for China, 32 million tons for Ukraine (up 1.5 million tons) [2] - Corn inventories: 37.5 million tons in southern ports (down 22.6 million tons), 80 million tons in northern ports (down 7 million tons); deep - processing corn inventories are 211.8 million tons, down 22.2 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; export volume of corn starch is 15.94 thousand tons, up 1.44 thousand tons [2] - Feed production is 2927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 32 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Deep - processing corn consumption is 114.64 million tons, down 0.99 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate is 47.88%, down 2.43%; starch enterprise operating rate is 50.36%, up 2.21% [2] 3.7 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 10%, up 0.44%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.69%, up 0.04% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.34%, up 1.16%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 11.34%, up 1.16% [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of the week ending September 25, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1527145 tons, compared with 1385966 tons last week and 1149524 tons in the same period last year [2] - As of September 25, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central - southern part of Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 32%, compared with 25% a week ago and 30% in the same period last year [2] - The USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 168.14 billion bushels, and the ending inventory will also reach the highest level in seven years [2]