9月PMI数据点评：制造业回升，非制造业徘徊

Economic Overview - September PMI data indicates weak economic recovery momentum, with the manufacturing sector slightly rebounding but still in contraction at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, reflecting weak service sector demand and increased employment pressure[2] - Overall composite PMI is at 50.6%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating a mixed economic outlook[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing PMI shows a production index of 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion[2] - New orders index is at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, but still indicates insufficient demand recovery[2] - Large enterprises report a PMI of 51.0%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.8% and 48.2%, respectively, highlighting significant structural differentiation[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - Non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, with a notable decline in new orders to 46.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a clear drop in demand[3] - Employment pressure is evident with the employment index at 45.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, suggesting challenges in workforce stability[3] - Business activity expectations remain optimistic at 55.7%, despite a slight decline, indicating potential for future demand recovery[3] Policy and Market Outlook - Short-term economic improvement is expected to rely heavily on policy support, with a new round of policy measures anticipated, including a potential reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool aimed at supporting project capital[2] - Continuous monitoring of the upcoming October Politburo meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is crucial for insights into economic policy direction[2]