天然橡胶产区系列报告（五）：非洲橡胶市场揭秘

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Africa's rubber production and harvested area increased rapidly from 2016 - 2023, with total production rising from 691,800 tons to 1,986,500 tons, accounting for 13.46% of the world's total in 2023 [1][6]. - Cote d'Ivoire is the largest rubber - producing country in Africa, with a production of 1,548,000 tons in 2023, accounting for 78% of Africa's total. Its production CAGR from 2018 - 2023 was +19.92% [1][8]. - It is expected that the inflection point of Cote d'Ivoire's rubber production capacity growth rate will appear before 2030 [2][36]. - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export bottleneck has been basically resolved, and its export growth rate is expected to recover [2]. - African rubber faces challenges from the high relative returns of other cash crops, but also has opportunities due to its price advantage [2]. - In the short term, potential zero - tariff shocks and continued capacity growth will put downward pressure on African rubber prices, but the supply pressure is expected to ease after around 2030 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 African Natural Rubber Main Distribution and Producing Areas 3.1.1 African Rubber Planting History and Main Producing Countries - Rubber trees were introduced to Africa in the early 20th century. From 2016 - 2023, Africa's rubber production and harvested area increased rapidly due to high prices around 2010 [1][6]. - Cote d'Ivoire is the largest rubber - producing country in Africa. Its rubber production was mainly contributed by industrial plantations initially, and then by rural plantations [11][12]. - Ghana's rubber production in 2023 was 126,400 tons, with a CAGR of +25.07% from 2018 - 2023, ranking second in Africa [16]. - Liberia's rubber industry is foreign - capital - dominated, with a production of 120,300 tons in 2023 [16]. - Nigeria was the largest rubber - producing country in Africa from 1961 - 1966, but its production was surpassed by Cote d'Ivoire later [17]. [6][16][17] 3.1.2 African Producing Areas' Planting Characteristics and Bottlenecks - African rubber producing areas are mainly in West Africa. Climate conditions, low tapping returns leading to labor shortages, and insufficient infrastructure for rubber transportation are the development bottlenecks [18][21]. - Cote d'Ivoire has a tropical rain - forest climate in the south and a tropical savanna climate in the north, with distinct rainy and dry seasons [19]. 3.1.3 How Long Can Cote d'Ivoire's High - Growth Rate of Production Be Maintained? - Due to the lack of key planting area data, it is difficult to directly infer the production capacity trend. Indirect speculation shows that the new planting area in Cote d'Ivoire probably started to decline around 2014, was at a low level from 2016 - 2021, and began to recover in 2022 [25][27]. - It is expected that the inflection point of Cote d'Ivoire's production capacity growth rate will appear before 2030, but the actual decline may occur earlier due to non - standard tapping and other factors [36]. 3.2 African Natural Rubber Export Situation and International Share 3.2.1 African Rubber Export Types and Trade Flows - In 2023, Cote d'Ivoire exported 1,930,400 tons of natural rubber, with a five - year CAGR of +22.95%. Its export volume accounted for 11.95% of the global total in 2024 [38]. - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports are mainly standard rubber. The government has restricted raw material exports and increased processing capacity. Its export growth rate is expected to recover [42][43][47]. - Ghana and Liberia's export growth from 2013 - 2023 was not obvious. Their export rubber types are mainly standard rubber, latex, and other forms of natural rubber [50]. 3.2.2 Introduction to Major African Rubber Companies - Halcyon Agri is an international company with a long - standing business history, operating in multiple countries and having two major business segments: Halcyon Rubber Company and Corrie MacColl [56]. - Socfin Group is an international agricultural industrial enterprise focusing on oil palm and rubber plantations, with businesses in multiple African and Southeast Asian countries [57]. - SIFCA is a Cote d'Ivoire agricultural - industrial group covering the entire natural rubber value chain, aiming to produce 2 million tons of natural rubber by 2030 [59]. 3.3 Challenges and Opportunities in the African Rubber Market 3.3.1 Substitution by Other Crops such as Cocoa, Coffee, and Cassava - Farmers in Cote d'Ivoire may switch from rubber to cocoa if cocoa prices remain high due to factors like aging cocoa trees [61]. 3.3.2 African Rubber Price Competitiveness and Development Potential - African rubber may not have significant performance defects. Due to different downstream usage habits, it has not been widely used in China, but some tire companies are starting to try it [63]. - If the zero - tariff scope for African rubber is further broadened, its price advantage will be prominent, helping it enter the Chinese rubber consumption market [64].