景气连升，结构性扰动仍存：——9月制造业PMI点评

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, with the addition of the traditional "Golden September" peak season, the PMI slightly rebounded below the boom - bust line, but the recovery was still mild, and structural contradictions remained. The production in September drove the PMI to rise by 0.28pct, followed by the employees, while the demand and material inventory contributed less than 0.1pct. The production - new order gap widened, and the PMI increase was weaker than the average in September since 2022, falling short of the seasonality. The economic recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and the 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may be the key to "break the situation" [6][12]. - For the bond market, the PMI has been below the boom - bust line for 6 consecutive months. The market has fully anticipated the weak data. In the fourth quarter, new policy - based financial instruments will take effect. Attention should be paid to whether data such as new orders are "better than expected". The downstream construction and project expenditures may speed up in the fourth quarter, which may drive the performance of the mid - stream manufacturing industry. Attention should also be paid to whether the PMI can exceed the seasonal level and return above the boom - bust line [6][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Manufacturing PMI: Moderately Upward, Elasticity Awaits Policy Boost (1) Supply and Demand: The Supply - Demand Gap May Widen Again - New orders increased by 0.2pct month - on - month to 49.7%. The impact of high temperature and heavy rain faded, and exports showed resilience, but the intensity of demand recovery was still insufficient as the increase in September was the lowest since 2022 [2][16]. - Production increased by 1.1pct month - on - month to 51.9%, being the largest contributor to PMI improvement. The production peak season was realized, and the procurement volume and production and operation activity expectation index increased. The "production - new order" gap widened to 2.2pct, the highest since the beginning of the year, and the supply - demand differentiation intensified [2][20]. (2) Foreign Trade: New Export Orders Rebound Faster - New export orders increased by 0.6pct month - on - month to 47.8%, and imports increased by 0.1pct to 48.1%. In September, due to the Christmas product export peak season and the demand from non - US economies, exports were stable, and port freight volume remained high. The increase in new export orders in September exceeded that in August and was better than the overall new orders, showing export resilience [24]. - Imports continued the slight upward trend and were at a high level in the same period, indicating that enterprises' demand for import stocking was strong [25]. (3) Price: The Pressure of Price Decline Reappears - In September, the purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price decreased by 0.1pct and 0.9pct month - on - month to 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The supply and demand of the basic raw material industry declined, dragging down the price index, while the prices of industries such as equipment manufacturing improved, showing a large industry differentiation [3][29]. (4) Inventory: Slow Destocking, Active Production, and a Sharp Increase in Product Inventory - In September, the raw material inventory index increased by 0.5pct to 48.5% due to the increase in procurement volume. However, the downstream demand destocking was slow, and the production expanded actively, resulting in a 1.4pct increase in finished product inventory to the highest level in the same period, showing the characteristic of "passive inventory accumulation" [3][31]. II. Non - Manufacturing PMI: The Construction Industry Continues to Be in Low - level Prosperity, Awaiting Policy Effect - In September, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3pct. The service industry PMI decreased by 0.4pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI increased by 0.2pct to 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line [36]. - The construction industry expansion was still weak. The business activity indexes of housing construction and civil engineering construction were below 50%. The lack of new orders was the main factor restricting construction. The 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may accelerate the investment rhythm in the fourth quarter and help the construction industry PMI recover [4][36]. - The service industry's prosperity declined in the off - season. After the summer vacation, tourism consumption entered the off - season. The approaching National Day holiday is expected to drive the improvement of travel service consumption [4][36].