加工冶炼端盈利有望修复，高端产品持续创新发展：有色金属稳增长工作方案点评

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan for stable growth in the non-ferrous metals industry, projecting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026, with a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of scientifically rational capacity layout to restore profitability in the processing and smelting sector, which will promote the continuous innovation and development of high-end products [3] - The focus on new generation information technology and new energy vehicles will drive breakthroughs in high-quality raw materials and integrated materials, enhancing the overall performance of products in the non-ferrous metals industry [3] Summary by Sections Copper - The report highlights the need for exploration and comprehensive utilization of scrap copper, promoting a scientifically rational layout for copper smelting projects [4] - It emphasizes the importance of resource exploration and efficient utilization to enhance resource security [4] Aluminum - A new round of exploration actions will improve resource security, and the green industry upgrade will support the development of green electricity aluminum and recycled aluminum [4] - The report mentions the construction of digital carbon management centers to promote low-carbon product evaluations [4] Lithium - The profitability of lithium carbonate smelting is expected to recover, with new applications like solid-state batteries likely to boost demand [4] - The report notes that as of September 26, 2025, the domestic operating rate for lithium carbonate is only 49.72%, indicating potential for recovery [4] Tin - The plan aims to strengthen tin resource exploration and utilization, consolidating China's position in the global tin industry [5] - In 2024, China's tin production is projected to be 69,000 tons, accounting for 23% of global production [5] Rare Earths & Tungsten - The development of the recycling industry for rare metals will receive strong policy support, ensuring raw material sources and market order [5] - The report notes that the high-end applications of rare earth materials will focus on humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong exploration capabilities in copper, such as Zijin Mining, and those optimizing scrap copper utilization like Jintian Copper [6] - For aluminum, high-dividend stocks like China Hongqiao and Zhongfu Industrial are recommended [6] - In lithium, companies involved in solid-state battery layouts such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are highlighted [6]