Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-30 15:26Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The high-end liquor prices have rebounded, which may temporarily boost market confidence. The current Shenyin Wanguo white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.66X, which is 3.13% lower than the reasonable level over the past decade. The dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, suggesting a focus on recovery opportunities in the sector [1][13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 26, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.07%. Specific sub-sectors include soft drinks (+0.86%), meat products (-0.02%), beer (-0.77%), snacks (-1.33%), and others [20]. Weekly Updates - Liquor: The white liquor sector fell by 3.03%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector. High-end liquor prices have increased, with Feitian Moutai rising by 90 yuan per bottle over five days. Despite slight pressure on consumption, the price increase may boost market confidence [1][13]. - Yellow Wine: Key players like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan saw declines of 5.80% and 2.24%, respectively. The sector is entering a verification phase for product distribution and sales [2]. - Beer: The beer sector decreased by 0.77%. Notable companies include Qingdao Beer (+0.2%) and Yanjing Beer (+1.7%). Future consumption policies are expected to drive sales recovery [2][14]. - Soft Drinks: The soft drink sector showed positive performance, with significant gains from companies like Yangyuan Beverage (+32.49%) and Jinziham (+11.93%). The sector remains attractive due to ongoing trends [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - White Liquor: Focus on three main lines: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Liquor, Shui Jing Fang), recovery concept stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [19]. - Beer: Emphasize three main lines: sustained growth stocks (e.g., Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring), potential performance rebound stocks (e.g., Angel Yeast), and category expansion stocks (e.g., Kuaijishan) [19]. Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.0 times, ranking 22nd among primary industries. The soft drink sector has the highest valuation increase this week, while the health product sector saw the smallest decrease [28]. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The decline in prices has been narrowing since the beginning of the year [18].