宁证期货今日早评-20250930

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The fundamentals of the coke market remain healthy, with prices expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - After the peak season, there is still room for the manganese - silicon price center to decline [4]. - Steel prices may run weakly and stably before the holiday with limited decline [4]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [5]. - The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The short - term trend of pig prices is expected to be weakly adjusted, with a possibility of a small rebound [6]. - Domestic soybean prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term [7]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long - making opportunities should be focused on in the fourth quarter [7]. - It is advisable to short at high positions for crude oil due to supply surplus pressure [8]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, in a situation of low inventory and weak demand [9]. - It is advisable to short at high positions for PX as PXN is under pressure [9]. - Silver is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions to control risks [10]. - Gold is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions to control risks before the holiday [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bond market operation is difficult, and the stock - bond seesaw should be concerned [11]. Summary by Short - Comments Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 34 yuan/ton. Supply has declined, and demand has a good rigid support. Mainstream coke enterprises have proposed a price increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2253 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. Domestic methanol starts at a high level, and downstream demand recovers. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at 2365 [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate is 44.18%, a decrease of 1.50%. Costs are slightly strengthened, and the loss degree deepens. After the peak season, there is room for the price center to decline [4]. Rebar - The price of billets in Tangshan is stable at 2970 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises have weak pre - holiday stocking willingness. Steel prices may run weakly and stably before the holiday [4]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1282 yuan/ton. Production is at a high level, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the lower support at 1260 [5]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7242 yuan/ton. Production enterprise inventory is decreasing, and downstream start - up rates are expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at 7200 [6]. Pig - The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.32 yuan/kg, up 0.8%. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to adjust weakly in the short - term with a possible small rebound [6]. Soybean - National port soybean inventory is 938.5 million tons, increasing. Domestic new soybeans are on the market, and prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term [7]. Palm Oil - National key - area commercial inventory is 55.22 million tons, decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long - making opportunities should be focused on in the fourth quarter [7]. Crude Oil - Iraq has resumed oil exports, and OPEC+ may increase production quotas in November. It is advisable to short at high positions due to supply surplus [8]. Rubber - Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. PX - The average domestic and Asian PX start - up rates are rising. PXN is under pressure, and it is advisable to short at high positions [9]. Silver - There are differences within the Fed. Silver is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions [10]. Gold - Sino - US trade issues and Fed policies boost gold. It is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [10]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - New policy - based financial tools are introduced, which are bullish for the stock market and bearish for the bond market in the medium and long - term. Concern should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [11].