铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on iron ore, stating that its expectations are fluctuating and it is in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the 12601 iron ore futures was 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan/ton or - 0.76%. The yesterday's position was 473,992 hands, with a decrease of 34,937 hands [1]. - Spot Prices: Imported ores like 65% Carajás fines dropped from 920.0 to 915.0 yuan/ton, 61.5% PB fines from 785.0 to 780.0 yuan/ton, 61% Jimbobara from 755.0 to 750.0 yuan/ton, and 56.5% Super Special from 713.0 to 710.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ores such as 66% Youbang and 65% Laiwu remained unchanged at 952.0 and 870.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Price Spreads: The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.7 yuan/ton to 140.2 yuan/ton, while the basis of 12601 against Jimbobara decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 47.7 yuan/ton. The spread of 12509 - 12601 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to - 41.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 12601 - 12605 increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 21.5 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB spread remained at 135.0 yuan/ton, the PB - Jimbobara spread at 30.0 yuan/ton, and the PB - Super Special spread decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 70.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [1].