港股市场策略周报 2025.9.29-2025.10.5-20251006

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by +4.34%, +3.88%, and +6.90% respectively [4][14] - All major industry sectors, except telecommunications, experienced gains, with the materials sector leading with a weekly increase of over 10% [4][14] - Technology stocks performed exceptionally well, driving consumer discretionary and information technology sectors to weekly gains exceeding 6% and 5% respectively [4][14] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stands at 83.81%, indicating a valuation level above the 5-year average by one standard deviation [4] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount this week was HKD 3.07 billion, a significant decrease from last week's HKD 4.84 billion [25][26] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of HKD 2.20 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 0.32 billion [25][26] Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy of HKD 15.14 billion, and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with HKD 4.65 billion [33] - The top net selling companies included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net sell of HKD 2.75 billion, and China Mobile (0941.HK) with HKD 1.40 billion [34] Macroeconomic Environment - The overall economic performance remains stable, with the composite PMI indicating a slight improvement to 50.6, while the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8, showing continued recovery [38][43] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new policy financial tool worth HKD 500 billion to support specific projects [38][39] Market Outlook - The economic data indicates a further weakening trend, with domestic economic conditions still in a bottoming phase; future policies are expected to focus on stimulating domestic demand and supporting key industries [4][43] - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology, which are expected to benefit from policy support [4][43]