海内外事件跟踪20251007：十一假期不能错过的事

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes overseas and domestic macro - dynamic trends during the National Day holiday. Overseas, the US government shutdown, economic data fluctuations, and changes in market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are the main focuses. Domestically, A - shares show a structural market, and the bond market maintains an oscillating pattern. Meanwhile, the National Day holiday sees a significant increase in cross - regional passenger flow, a boost in the tourism market, and a stable performance in the movie market [12][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Macro - dynamic Tracking 1.1 Overseas Assets: Equity Rallies, Gold Hits New High - During the National Day holiday, the expectation of two more Fed rate cuts this year strengthened, leading to a decline in the 2Y US Treasury yield. The US government shutdown pushed up the term spread, and gold prices soared to a record high. OPEC+ considering increased production in the next three months caused oil prices to fall. - Global major stock indices mostly rose. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq increased by 1.19%, 0.82%, and 1.49% respectively in the week up to October 6. - In the commodity market, gold, silver, and copper prices rose, while oil prices fell. The US dollar slightly increased, and the euro and yen against the US dollar declined [13][15]. 1.2 Overseas Politics: Focus on the US Government Shutdown - The US federal government shut down on October 1 due to the Senate's rejection of the Republican's temporary appropriation bill. The probability of this shutdown lasting until October 15 or later is 70%. - The government shutdown may impact GDP through consumption, business operations, and government spending. Historical data shows that previous shutdowns led to a decline in GDP growth rates [19][22][23]. - Other political hot - spots include new US tariffs, the Trump administration's plan to end the Gaza conflict, and the Supreme Court's ruling on the Fed official's dismissal [24]. 1.3 Economic Data: US Employment and PMI - US JOLTS job openings in August were higher than expected, with an increase mainly in healthcare and accommodation & catering, and a significant decline in construction and the federal government. - US ADP employment in September was significantly lower than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in September was slightly higher than expected, but new order demand was weak. The ISM services PMI was significantly lower than expected, with a sharp decline in business activity and new orders [27][29][34]. 1.4 Fed: Market Rate - cut Expectations Strengthen - Fed officials had different stances during the holiday. Logan and Goolsbee were hawkish, while Milan was dovish. - Market expectations for two more rate cuts this year strengthened. As of October 3, the probability of 25bp rate cuts in October and December was 86.3%, up from 65.4% a week ago [37][38][39]. 2. Domestic Macro - dynamic Tracking 2.1 Domestic Assets: A - shares' Structural Market, Bond Market Maintains Oscillating Pattern - In late September, A - shares were led by the technology - growth sector. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index all rose. Looking ahead, A - shares will continue the structural market driven by policies and liquidity. - The bond market is in an environment where negatives outweigh positives, with interest rates likely to oscillate. Short - term bonds are stable, while ultra - long - term bonds are weak [41]. 2.2 National Day Passenger Flow: Cross - regional Passenger Volume Hits a New High - During the first half of the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday (up to October 4), the cross - regional passenger volume reached about 1.25 billion person - times, a 5.7% increase from the previous year, with a daily average of over 310 million person - times [6]. 2.3 National Day Tourism: Travel Radius Further Expands - The 8 - day holiday boosted both domestic and outbound tourism. Long - distance outdoor consumption demand was evident, and outbound tourism continued to heat up. For example, bookings for trips to Russia increased nearly three - fold after the visa - free policy, and the top 10 popular outbound destinations included Japan, Thailand, etc. [7][47]. 2.4 Off - line Consumption: National Day Movie Market Remains Stable - As of 17:28 on October 6, the total box office (including pre - sales) of the 2025 National Day movie season exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than last year. The average ticket price decreased, and the market remained stable due to price concessions and diversified supply [8][50].