Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Burberry Group, setting a target price of £14.50, representing a 20.6% upside from the current price of £12.02 [2][3]. Core Insights - Burberry is in a phase of brand repair and profit recovery, with current valuations not reflecting mid-term improvement potential. Under the leadership of new CEO Joshua Schulman and creative director Daniel Lee, the Burberry Forward strategy is effectively enhancing profitability [3][4]. - The company has shown signs of fundamental recovery, with a focus on returning to its classic roots while optimizing costs and enhancing brand recognition through modern aesthetics [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Brand Heritage and Product Categories - Burberry, established in 1856, has evolved from a raincoat manufacturer to a globally influential luxury brand, with ready-to-wear clothing as its core revenue source, contributing approximately 60-70% of total revenue from FY2020 to FY2025 [4][11]. - The product matrix is continuously optimized, with ready-to-wear clothing being the primary revenue contributor, followed by accessories and menswear [16][18]. New Management and Strategy - The new management team, led by Joshua Schulman, is implementing the Burberry Forward strategy, focusing on brand positioning, product structure, channel operations, and organizational management to enhance decision-making efficiency and reduce costs [6][43]. - The management anticipates achieving approximately £100 million in annual savings by FY27 through workforce reductions and operational efficiencies [6][9]. Industry Landscape - The personal luxury goods market is expected to decline by 1.4% in 2024, marking the first slowdown in 15 years, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties. However, long-term growth opportunities remain, driven by younger consumer demographics and product innovation [8][9]. - Burberry holds a 0.9% market share, ranking 18th among luxury brands, indicating significant room for growth within the industry [8][9]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue and gross margins are projected to face short-term pressure, but improvements are expected as the Burberry Forward strategy progresses. The company anticipates revenue growth rates of -3.7%, +4.6%, and +4.6% for FY2026E to FY2028E [9][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to recover from FY26 onwards, with estimates of 65.8%, 67.0%, and 68.2% for the following years [9][10].
首次覆盖：百年英伦奢侈品牌复兴，看新管理团队与DanielLee如何驱动品牌价值回归
Haitong Securities International·2025-10-08 01:10