申万宏源策略一周回顾展望：红十月，备战跨年行情

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on asset prices, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger precious metals, alongside a slight increase in easing expectations due to weakened economic growth forecasts [2][6] - The election of high-profile political figures in Japan is expected to bring back fiscal stimulus and slow down interest rate hikes, resulting in a weaker yen and a steepening of Japanese government bond yields, which has led to a significant rise in Japanese stocks [3][12] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the fourth quarter and the year-end market, emphasizing that the technology sector will continue to drive market trends more than cyclical sectors until spring 2026 [3][17] Group 2 - The report anticipates that spring 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including a critical verification period for demand and potential delays in the emergence of new market phases due to weak demand [3][17] - It suggests that the technology sector will likely experience a long-term price-performance issue, similar to previous years, indicating a potential mid-term consolidation phase [3][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "technology main line" and specific cyclical sectors with supply logic, focusing on AI applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and storage as key investment areas [3][18][19] Group 3 - The report identifies the ongoing trend of "反内卷" (anti-involution) as a critical structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [3][19] - It expresses a continued positive outlook for Hong Kong stocks, which are expected to benefit from global easing and the trends in new economic industries [3][21] - The report notes that the AI industry trend is strengthening, with significant advancements in applications and storage demand, indicating a robust investment landscape in these areas [3][12][21]