红十月，备战跨年行情：申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/09/29-25/10/07)

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the US government shutdown on asset prices, leading to a weaker dollar and stronger precious metals, alongside a slight increase in easing expectations due to weakened economic growth forecasts [2][5][11] - The election of high-profile political figures in Japan is expected to bring back "Abenomics," which may lead to fiscal stimulus and a slowdown in interest rate hikes, resulting in a weaker yen and a steepening of Japanese bond yields [3][11][12] Group 2 - The report maintains a positive outlook for the fourth quarter and the year-end market, with expectations that the technology sector will continue to drive market trends more than cyclical catalysts until spring 2026 [15][16] - It anticipates that the spring of 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including a critical verification period for demand and potential delays in the emergence of new market phases [15][16] Group 3 - The focus remains on technology sectors such as AI applications, semiconductor manufacturing, and storage, with a noted upward trend in overseas computing power despite short-term disturbances [16][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of anti-involution as a key structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [17][18] Group 4 - The report suggests that Hong Kong stocks may continue to benefit from global easing and the trends in new economy industries, with strong representation from leading companies in the market [18][19] - It highlights the ongoing strength in precious metals and copper as key investment areas, while also noting the potential for price increases in these commodities due to supply disruptions [16][17]