近期黄金大涨快评：黄金牛市：长期逻辑、短期触发与未来展望

Long-term Logic - The long-term price trend of gold is closely linked to the global macroeconomic landscape, monetary system evolution, and supply-demand changes[4] - The trend of de-dollarization is undermining the dollar's credit foundation, leading to increased gold purchases by central banks as a strategic move[4] - The accumulation of U.S. debt risks is heightening concerns over monetary credit, reinforcing gold's safe-haven attributes[5] Short-term Triggers - In September, gold prices surged by 11.6%, driven by unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which initiated a rate reduction of 25 basis points[3][9] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Eurasia, have escalated, increasing market risk aversion and driving demand for gold as a safe asset[11] - The scale of gold ETFs expanded significantly, reaching 32.57 million ounces in September, marking the second-highest monthly increase since July 2022[13] Future Outlook - The support system for gold remains robust, with long-term trends in the global monetary credit system and ongoing central bank purchases expected to sustain gold's bullish trend over the next 2-3 years[17] - Short-term factors, including continued monetary easing and persistent geopolitical risks, are likely to keep gold prices elevated and volatile[17]