Workflow
10月,蓄势待发A股动静框架之静态指标
Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-08 07:41

Core Insights - The report indicates that trading sentiment remains active, with asset linkage indicators showing significant potential for growth. The current stock-to-bond allocation value has retreated from historical extremes, with the equity risk premium (ERP) stabilizing below one standard deviation [2][3][17] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 22.5, with most broad-based indices around the 70th percentile historically, suggesting that valuations remain relatively low [2][18] - Investor behavior shows an increase in stock buybacks, while net reductions in industrial capital have widened. The three main funding sources have seen a rebound compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in new fund establishment [3][36][41] Asset Linkage Indicators - The stock-to-bond relative yield is at 0.97% and -0.05% respectively, indicating a high comparative value for stock assets against bonds, despite a recent decline from previous peaks [11][14] - The holding stock-bond yield difference is at 6.20%, reflecting a significant historical percentile of 66.9%, suggesting upward potential [14] - The ERP is currently at 2.59%, which is below the historical average and indicates a relatively high risk premium for equities [17] Market Configuration Indicators - The PE ratio for the Wind All A index is at 22.5, with a historical percentile of 78.5%, indicating that most indices are above the 50th percentile historically [18][20] - Valuation dispersion is at 0.795, close to the historical median, suggesting a moderate level of risk [21] - The turnover rate is reported at 2.05%, indicating a high level of trading activity, with a historical percentile of 85.3% [26] Market Trading/Sentiment Indicators - The maximum daily trading volume for the month is at 91%, indicating sustained high trading sentiment [29] - The industry trend indicator shows that 97% of industries have a positive monthly trend, reflecting strong market momentum [32] - The proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average is at 77.08%, indicating a high level of market strength [35] Investor Behavior - The stock buyback scale has increased to 12.152 billion, indicating a positive trend in corporate actions [38] - The net reduction in industrial capital has widened to 48.929 billion, suggesting a cautious outlook from major shareholders [41] - The three funding sources indicator is at 0.65, showing a recovery in funding flows and an increase in new fund establishment [44]