9月PMI点评：内需与政策将重新主导PMI

Group 1: PMI Overview - The overall manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the expansion threshold[7] - New export orders improved to 47.8%, the best level in six months, while import PMI reached 48.1%, the highest in seven months[7] - Small enterprises showed the most significant improvement in PMI, rising to 48.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points, compared to a 0.2 percentage point increase for large enterprises[7] Group 2: Internal Demand and Policy Impact - The marginal improvement in the PMI is primarily driven by changes in internal demand, influenced by recent policy measures such as the revision of the Price Law and the regulation of competitive order[7] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue to support the recovery of internal demand, with production and procurement indices showing better performance than new orders and backlog orders[7] - The service sector's PMI remains above the expansion threshold, with business activity expectations in the service sector consistently above 55% for the past 12 months, indicating robust growth[7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Internal demand narratives are expected to replace tariff disturbances as the core variable for economic observation in the next phase[7] - The overall non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points but remains resilient, primarily affected by the construction sector[7] - As external trade shocks gradually dissipate, the policy focus on expanding internal demand will further manifest in economic data[7]