债市专题研究：国庆假期要闻汇总及思考

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - During the National Day holiday, there were two major trading themes in global assets: the US government shutdown and the victory of Sanae Takaichi as the president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. The global risk appetite is expected to rise driven by liquidity. Japanese stock indices and gold led the gains, while long - term bond yields in major countries such as the US and Japan increased due to concerns about loose fiscal policies and debt sustainability [1][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Holiday News Summary and Thoughts - US Government Shutdown: On the evening of September 30, the US Senate failed to pass the annual appropriation bill, leading to a government shutdown. The core reason is the disagreement between the two parties on medical insurance welfare spending. The shutdown may delay important economic data releases and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision. The market's concern about the unsustainability of US government debt has increased [11][12]. - Sanae Takaichi's Victory: On October 4, Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election. Her victory implies a high probability of becoming Japan's prime minister. Her policy style is expected to continue "Abenomics", with a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to a strong Japanese stock market, a weak Japanese bond market, and a weak yen. The market's expectation of a Japanese interest - rate hike in October has been postponed [12][13]. - Gold Price Increase: During the National Day holiday, the COMEX gold price rose 2.49% in three trading days. The rise is driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold purchases. The US government shutdown further boosted gold's safe - haven demand [14]. 2. Global Asset Class Performance - Equity Assets: During the National Day holiday (October 1 - 6), equity asset prices generally rose, with Japanese stock indices performing outstandingly. In the domestic market, A - shares were on holiday, and Hong Kong stocks rose first and then fell. Overseas, most global stock indices rose after the Fed's September interest - rate cut. Sanae Takaichi's victory pushed up the Japanese stock market [15][19]. - Commodity Market: The US government shutdown drove up the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Gold, silver, and copper prices rose significantly, while crude oil prices generally fell [19]. - Bond Market: Affected by the US government shutdown and concerns about the sustainability of loose fiscal policies, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields first decreased and then increased, with a net increase of 2.0BP. Japanese bonds showed a steepening trend, with 10 - year Treasury bond yields rising 1.5BP. Italian and German 10 - year Treasury bond yields also increased [20]. 3. Overseas News Summary - US Government Shutdown and Data Delays: Key economic data were postponed due to the government shutdown. The new ADP employment was negative, but the decline slowed down. The US 9 - month manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, but the contraction speed slowed down, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose significantly [27][30]. - US 9 - month ISM Manufacturing PMI: The 9 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, a slight increase from the previous month. Except for output, supplier delivery, and prices, other sub - items were in the contraction range. The output item had the largest month - on - month increase, while new export orders had the largest decline [32]. - Eurozone Inflation: In September, the Eurozone CPI increased slightly year - on - year, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month. The PPI decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [36]. - Sanae Takaichi's Victory and BOJ Expectations: Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, and the market's expectation of a BOJ interest - rate hike in October was postponed [39]. 4. Domestic News Summary - Travel: During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional population flow and private travel volume increased compared with the same period last year. Domestic and international flight operations also increased, especially international flights [44][45]. - Movies: During the National Day holiday, the number of moviegoers and box office revenue were close to those of 2024 but far lower than those of 2019. The number of movie screenings was significantly higher than that of 2019 [51]. - City Subways: The subway ridership in most first - tier cities decreased during the National Day holiday [51]. - Catering: Catering consumption was booming during the National Day holiday. The order volume of "Must - eat List" restaurants increased significantly, and the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased year - on - year [58]. - Real Estate: Shanghai's second - hand housing transactions decreased compared with 2024, while Beijing's real estate market was active during the National Day holiday. The real - estate market's "stabilization" still needs further confirmation [58][61].