工业硅大厂复产，多晶硅关注平台公司进展

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious compared to the industry inventory exceeding 1 million tons. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts, and prices need to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments. The lower limit of industrial silicon prices may be clearer, and the strategy of buying on dips has a higher probability of success, but chasing high prices requires caution [4]. - In September, the progress of the platform company for polysilicon fell short of expectations, causing the market to decline. However, it may be too early to say it has failed. In October, there may still be a game around it. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities. The digestion of warehouse receipts may limit the reverse arbitrage space [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - As of September 30, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 285 yuan/ton to 8,640 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 51,360 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Big Factory Restart, Polysilicon Focus on Platform Company Progress Industrial Silicon - As of the end of September, Xinjiang added 9 furnaces (7 by big factories), Sichuan reduced 5, and Yunnan reduced 1. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 furnaces and Sichuan's to about 35. Xinjiang big factories may have plans to open more furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory remained flat, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 12,400 tons. Before the National Day, downstream enterprises stocked up based on rigid demand. If Xinjiang big factories' eastern base opens 50 furnaces, there may be an inventory accumulation of about 40,000 tons from September - October and a depletion of about 50,000 tons during the dry season from November - December. If it opens to 60 furnaces, it will be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a slight depletion in December [2][12]. Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon remained flat. Some devices were shut down for maintenance. The overall enterprise operating rate was 71.2%, with a weekly output of 47,100 tons (down 3.09% month - on - month) and inventory of 44,500 tons (down 2.84% month - on - month). It is expected that the price will oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - This week, the polysilicon futures main contract oscillated. The quoted price increase amplitude began to converge. The actual transaction price of first - tier dense material was 51 - 52 yuan/kg, and granular material was about 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not implemented, and the production schedule in October increased to about 134,000 tons. As of September 25, the polysilicon enterprise factory inventory was 226,000 tons (up 22,000 tons month - on - month), mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. As of September 30, the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 222,000 tons (up 14,000 tons month - on - month), reaching 2 - 2.5 months' level. Although the production limit was not implemented, the sales limit was still in effect. The spot price may remain flat [3][13]. Silicon Wafer - This week, the silicon wafer price remained stable. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 silicon wafers were stable at 1.35/1.70 yuan/piece. The production schedule in October was 55.68GW (down 3.4GW month - on - month). As of September 25, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 16.23GW (down 0.64GW month - on - month). The inventory was in a reasonable range, and the price is expected to remain stable [14]. Battery Cell - This week, the battery cell transaction price increased. The prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were raised. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 3.04GW (down 5.07GW month - on - month). The domestic production schedule in October was 58.65GW (down 1.5GW month - on - month). Overseas demand supported the price increase of M10, while the prices of G12R/G12 may remain stable [14]. Component - This week, the component price was basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.63 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.69 yuan/watt. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic component finished products was 33.6GW (down 1.6GW month - on - month). Some leading enterprises reduced production, and the domestic production schedule in October was 45.66GW (down 2.1GW month - on - month). The component price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the introduction of demand - side policies [15]. 3.3 Investment Advice Industrial Silicon - The strategy of buying on dips for industrial silicon has a higher probability of success, but chasing high prices requires caution [4]. Polysilicon - In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities. The digestion of warehouse receipts may limit the reverse arbitrage space [4]. 3.4 Hot News - GCL Technology revised the subscription agreement for issuing new shares. The company plans to use the proceeds for polysilicon capacity structural adjustment, R & D and production capacity enhancement of silane gas and related materials, capital structure optimization, general funds, and loan repayment [18]. - The completion environmental protection acceptance content of the polysilicon device reconstruction and expansion project of Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. was publicly announced, with a public notice period from September 8 to October 11, 2025 [18]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides a series of high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [19 - 59].