锡周报：有色及贵金属-20251008

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is neutral, with a price range of 270,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the LME tin price soared by over 4%, reaching a high of $37,695. The recent main factor affecting tin prices is Indonesia's plan to close 1,000 illegal tin mines. However, it is currently believed that the probability of continuous price increases is low [5] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was $8/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 300 yuan/ton [9] - Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14] 1.2 Spread - This week, the inter - monthly structure of tin changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17] 1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory decreased by 563 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 523 tons [23] - This week, LME inventory increased by 270 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 15.5% [28] 1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the funds invested in SHFE tin were 1,561,140,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in an inflow direction [33] 1.5 Trading Volume and Open Interest - This week, the trading volume of SHFE tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly [35] - This week, the trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the open interest continued to decline [41] 1.6 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin increased slightly [46] 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In July 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In August 2025, the import volume was 10,267 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28.61% [50] - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore increased slightly [51] 2.2 Smelting - In August 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [53] - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 30.13%, a slight increase from last week [55] 2.3 Import - In August 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,296 tons, exports were 1,640 tons, resulting in a net export of 344 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 501 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 15,038 yuan/ton [60] 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption Volume - In August 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,046 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 15,843 tons [68] 3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fees decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises increased to 73.2% in August. The production and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises decreased slightly in July [70] 3.3 End - User Consumption - In August 2025, the output of end - user products varied. The output of integrated circuits decreased, while the monthly output of electronics and smartphones increased. In the home appliance sector, the output of air conditioners decreased, while the output of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly [77] - In August 2025, the consumption of home appliances and new energy decreased month - on - month [79] - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased, in line with the performance of tin prices [84]