美国政府停摆，美元为何回升？：国庆中秋假期宏观综述

Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US government shutdown began on October 1, 2023, due to unresolved differences between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding healthcare subsidies, leading to uncertainty in economic data releases[11] - The ADP employment data for September indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the lowest monthly performance since April 2023, which reflects significant impacts from tariff policies on the labor market[12] - Despite initial declines, the US dollar index rebounded by 0.8% from October 2 to October 7, reaching approximately 98.5, close to the previous high of 98.55[12] Group 2: European Economic Challenges - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Cornu highlighted fiscal difficulties in the Eurozone, with the government aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.7% of GDP by 2026[17] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in September, indicating a contraction, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, suggesting that the worst impacts of tariff shocks on US production confidence may have passed[18] Group 3: Japanese Economic Policy - Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Kishi is expected to implement fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, causing significant fluctuations in the yen, which reached a three-month low against the dollar[25] - The Japanese economy faces challenges with high government debt levels, and the likelihood of further monetary easing is increasing as inflation pressures remain subdued[26] Group 4: China's Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.8 in September, driven by a rebound in new export orders, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50[31] - The production index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9, indicating a faster pace of production expansion, but domestic demand remains weak[31]