高波的鱼尾，难测的鱼头

• The report discusses the market's high volatility phase, likened to the "tail" of a fish, indicating a potential peak in the TMT sector's performance due to high trading concentration and lack of clear drivers for other sectors [1][7] - Industry divergence, measured by rolling quarterly return standard deviation, has been expanding and is expected to reach its peak since September 2024 if the current "strong-get-stronger" trend persists [1][7] - The TMT sector's trading volume share is at its third-highest level historically, and when combined with the advanced manufacturing sector, it approaches the historical peak, suggesting a crowded trade scenario [1][7] - The stock-bond yield gap has been running below the -2 standard deviation of the Bollinger Band for nearly three years, implying limited upside potential for the market without new upward drivers [2][8]