国庆前后，需着重关注的三件事

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance announced changes to the Q4 2025 government bond issuance plan, shifting from 30-year bonds to 20-year and 50-year bonds[6] - The outstanding scale of the 30-year special government bond will stop at 247 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 35.5 billion yuan of the 30-year active bond[6] - The 25-year coupon bond is expected to have a total outstanding amount exceeding 300 billion yuan after two renewals in November and December[8] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI and Economic Recovery - The September manufacturing PMI recorded 49.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, primarily driven by seasonal factors[9] - Production expansion continues to outpace demand, with the production index at 51.9% and new orders index at 49.7%[13] - The downward transmission of prices remains slow, indicating significant constraints on terminal demand[14] Group 3: Overseas Asset Performance - Major overseas stock indices showed strong performance, with the Nikkei 225 up 5.7% and the S&P 500 up 1.5% during the holiday period[18] - The global bond market mostly rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down 2.0 basis points to 4.18%[18] - Commodity prices exhibited mixed results, with gold rising 5.1% to $3,984 per ounce, while WTI crude oil fell 5.3%[19]