“大财政”系列之二：六问美国政府“关门”

Group 1: Government Shutdown Reasons and Duration - The primary reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's tax credits and Republicans opposing this linkage[1][12]. - Market predictions indicate a shutdown duration of over 15 days has a 67% probability, with the House passing a temporary funding bill but the Senate failing to reach the required 60 votes[2][13]. Group 2: Impact on Government Operations and Economic Indicators - During the shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, affecting the release of key statistical data such as retail sales and employment figures, while essential services like military and social security continue[3][16]. - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days, with the longest lasting 34 days[4][20]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Shutdown - A one-month shutdown is estimated to impact GDP by only 0.02%, with the 2019 shutdown resulting in a permanent GDP loss of approximately $30 billion, also around 0.02% of that year's GDP[5][28]. - The unemployment rate may see a temporary increase of 0.1 percentage points during a shutdown, but typically returns to normal levels shortly after[6][34]. Group 4: Market Reactions to Shutdown - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has an average increase of 2.91% during shutdowns, with a 75% success rate of positive returns[7][38]. - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with 10-year bonds averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points and 2-year bonds dropping 8 basis points[7][38].