国庆海内外十件大事——策略周聚焦

Global Macro Overview - Global equity markets experienced a rally, benefiting from expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Major indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rose by 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6% respectively from October 1-7. European indices also saw gains, with the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC40 increasing by 1.4%, 2.1%, and 1.0% respectively. Asian markets outperformed, with the Nikkei 225 up 6.7% and the KOSPI up 3.6% [2][9][12] - Precious metals surged, with COMEX gold rising by 3.1% and reaching over $4000 per ounce on October 8. This increase was supported by a backdrop of a U.S. government shutdown and weak employment data, which heightened expectations for Fed rate cuts. In contrast, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.0% and 2.3% respectively, primarily due to OPEC+ considering increased production [2][12][14] - Bitcoin futures on CME rose by 6.55% during the same period, reaching a peak of $125,689 on October 5, surpassing the previous record set on August 14. This increase was part of a broader rally in risk assets [3][16] Domestic Economic Insights - Domestic travel saw a significant increase, with cross-regional movement reaching 2.14 billion trips from October 1-7, a 6.9% increase year-on-year. The number of flights executed during this period was 118,000, averaging 16,800 flights per day, marking a five-year high [5][26][33] - However, urban public transport in major cities showed a decline, with daily subway ridership in first-tier cities averaging 26.65 million, lower than the previous two years. The film market also underperformed during the National Day holiday, with box office revenue of 1.73 billion yuan, only slightly above 2022's figures [5][27][32] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market has shown strong performance this year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 16% and the CSI 300 Index up 18%. Small-cap growth stocks have outperformed, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market both rising by 51% [9][37][39] - The market has seen significant excess returns from public funds, with the CSI Equity Fund Index up 32%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 16.4 percentage points. Approximately 75% of actively managed equity funds have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [37][42] - There has been a notable increase in share reductions since July, particularly in the TMT, machinery, and power equipment sectors. The total reduction in shares from July to September reached 1.22 billion yuan, with electronics and machinery being the most affected sectors [10][43][45]