2025十一假期期间重要消息及解读

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data falling short of expectations has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to an increase in global risk appetite [1]. - The U.S. government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and key economic data delays may affect the Fed's monetary policy [4]. - Gold prices have reached record highs due to factors such as the U.S. fiscal deficit, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold - buying, and Fed rate - cut expectations [6]. - The steel market may continue to fluctuate in a range due to weak demand, and the energy - chemical market is affected by production increases and demand changes [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Macro - During the 2025 National Day holiday, the travel intensity was lower than that of the May Day holiday, with a 4.9% year - on - year increase in the average daily cross - regional human flow from the 1st to the 5th day, a 3.1 - percentage - point drop from the May Day holiday [1]. - Traditional tourist attractions' popularity declined, while cross - border and specialty tours were popular. For example, the bookings in some specialty tourist areas like Zhaotong and Hezhou increased by 95% and 88% respectively, and outbound travel bookings increased by over 30% [3]. - By the end of September, China's foreign exchange reserves rose to 33386.58 billion US dollars, and the gold reserves increased by 40000 ounces to 74060000 ounces, with the 11th consecutive monthly increase [2]. - As of the end of September, new growth - stabilization plans for seven key industries were released, focusing on the balance between supply and demand and AI - enabled upgrades [3]. International Macro - The U.S. government shut down due to the failure to pass a temporary fiscal appropriation. It is expected to have a minor impact on GDP and may slightly increase the unemployment rate temporarily. Key economic data release may be delayed [4]. - S&P believes the government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points by the end of this year and further relax monetary policy by 50 basis points in 2026 [4]. - The U.S. September ADP employment decreased by 32000 people, far lower than the expected increase of 51000 people, and the September ISM services PMI dropped to 50 [4]. - The eurozone's September CPI initial value was 2.2%, and Germany's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, with the manufacturing situation deteriorating due to a decline in new orders [4]. - High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in the U.S. and Japan: High - profile political events in