一文速览十一假期事纪（2025）

Domestic Observations - Travel demand during the holiday period is significantly higher than the same period last year, with overall air ticket prices also elevated compared to last year [11][15] - The tourism market is experiencing a "volume and price increase," with customized and self-driving tours focusing on experiential aspects [17][21] - The total box office for the National Day film season has exceeded 1.7 billion yuan, slightly lower than the overall level of the same period last year [21] Overseas Observations - The U.S. government is in a "shutdown" due to the failure to reach an agreement on a temporary funding bill [25] - The U.S. September ADP employment data and ISM data have been released, reinforcing expectations for an interest rate cut in October [26] - Japan is set to welcome its first female Prime Minister, with the election of Sanae Takaichi as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [29] Market Observations - The Nikkei 225 index recorded a 6.70% increase during the holiday, leading global equity markets, while Taiwan and South Korea also saw significant gains of 3.64% [31] - Commodity prices for copper, silver, and gold have risen, with copper prices boosted by the shutdown of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and strong demand from AI data centers [34] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slightly up by 0.38% and 0.19% respectively [31] Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a "red October," as historical trends suggest a strong market performance following the National Day holiday [39] - Current recommendations include maintaining positions in sectors such as technology, energy storage, satellite connectivity, and commercial aerospace, while also considering cyclical sectors that may have lower visibility [43] - Attention is drawn to the favorable conditions for non-ferrous metals due to the price increases in copper, silver, and gold during the holiday [43]