Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-08 13:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The global natural decline rates of oil and gas fields show significant differentiation, leading to a more concentrated future supply of oil and gas [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the average annual decline rate for conventional oil is 5.6%, while for natural gas it is 6.8%. Without new investments, oil production is expected to decline by 8% annually over the next decade, and natural gas by 9% [5][12]. - The report highlights that nearly 90% of upstream investments are currently aimed at offsetting declines rather than meeting growth, indicating a need for substantial new investments to maintain current production levels [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.53 per barrel, down 7.99% week-on-week, while WTI futures closed at $60.88 per barrel, down 7.36% [24]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 549, although this is a decrease of 38 compared to the previous year [37]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend for crude oil, with expectations of downward pressure on prices, but a medium to high price range due to OPEC cuts and shale oil cost support [4]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore rose to $21.72 per barrel, an increase of $8.14 from the previous week [59]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust, with a gradual recovery anticipated as economic conditions stabilize [4]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a recovery expectation for the polyester sector, with potential upward movement in profit margins as supply-demand dynamics improve [17]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [17]. - It also highlights the resilience of upstream exploration and development companies, particularly offshore service companies, which are expected to see performance improvements [17].