2025年国庆假期观察：金价再创新高，国内文旅消费一枝独秀

Group 1: Economic Overview - During the National Day holiday, major asset prices were influenced by the U.S. government shutdown and the election of Japan's new ruling party president, leading to a historic high in gold prices[7] - The Baidu migration index showed a year-on-year growth of 19.2% during the holiday, indicating a high level of tourism consumption[7] - Cross-regional passenger flow increased by 5.2% compared to the previous year, outperforming the pre-holiday expectation of 3.2%[7] Group 2: Domestic Consumption Trends - Despite high tourism consumption, the growth rate of foot traffic in commercial areas declined, marking the weakest performance since the May Day holiday in 2024[7] - Key retail and catering enterprises saw a sales growth of only 3.3% during the first four days of the holiday, lower than the 4.5% growth in the same period last year[36] - In major cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, the sales growth for retail sectors remained subdued, with Beijing's key monitored enterprises showing only a 0.4% increase[36] Group 3: Real Estate Market - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in 12 cities fell by 4.2% year-on-year as of October 5, indicating a continued weak real estate market[7] - New home transaction volumes also showed a widening decline, suggesting ongoing challenges in the property sector[7] Group 4: Production and Employment - Pre-holiday production data indicated a downward trend in raw material demand, with railway freight volume showing a continuous decline[7] - The operating rates in various sectors, including automotive and textiles, remained in negative growth territory, reflecting a sluggish production environment[7]