Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-08 13:27Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the pig farming industry, indicating a potential for value reassessment of quality pig farming companies due to the "anti-involution" process and policy support [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with both fat and piglet farming facing losses, prompting a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [2][3]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality pig farming companies, as they are expected to see a reassessment of their value amidst the ongoing industry changes [2][3]. - The report anticipates that the current pig cycle is nearing its downward end, making it an opportune time for left-side positioning in investments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenyuan Agricultural Index increased by 0.2%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 2.0% [2][3]. - The top five performing stocks included Hualu Biological (6.0%), Honghui Fruits and Vegetables (4.1%), and Wancheng Group (3.7%) [2][3]. Pig Farming - The report notes that during the holiday period, pig prices have accelerated their decline, with the national average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, down 0.67 yuan/kg from the previous week [2][3]. - The average self-breeding and self-raising farming cost is estimated between 12.5-13.0 yuan/kg, indicating that the industry is facing comprehensive losses [2][3]. - The report suggests that the current losses in pig farming will likely lead to an accelerated elimination of inefficient production capacity [2][3]. Chicken Farming - For white feathered chickens, prices have shown some recovery, with the average sales price for commodity chicks at 3.27 yuan/chick, up 5.48% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report advises monitoring the performance of related companies as the third-quarter earnings are expected to show a turning point [2][3]. Pet Food - In August, online sales of pet food reached approximately 2.4 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase [2][3]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies, such as Guibao Pet, which saw a 19% increase in GMV [2][3].