Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, but it provides various investment recommendations for specific companies within the sector. Core Views - The global natural decline rates of oil and gas fields show significant regional differences, leading to a more concentrated supply structure in the future, particularly favoring the Middle East and Russia [3][10][13]. - To maintain current oil and gas production levels, substantial new investments are required, with estimates suggesting over 45 million barrels per day of oil and 200 billion cubic meters of gas needed by 2050 [3][13]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $64.53 per barrel, a decrease of 7.99% week-on-week [21][30]. - The refining sector is seeing improvements in profitability due to rising product price spreads, although current levels remain low [47][50]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - The average annual decline rate for global conventional oil is 5.6%, while for natural gas, it is 6.8%. Without new investments, oil production could decline by 8% annually over the next decade [3][4]. - The Brent crude oil price has decreased significantly, impacting drilling day rates and overall upstream profitability [21][30]. - As of September 26, the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 549, an increase of 7 rigs week-on-week but a decrease of 38 rigs year-on-year [32][39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $21.72 per barrel, reflecting a rise of $8.14 per barrel from the previous week [50]. - The price spread for U.S. gasoline (RBOB) against WTI crude oil was $17.13 per barrel, down by $0.26 from the previous week [54]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low margins [47][50]. Polyester Sector - There is an anticipated recovery in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift positively [15]. - Key companies recommended for investment in the polyester sector include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, given the favorable competitive landscape [15]. - For upstream exploration and production, companies like CNOOC and offshore engineering firms are highlighted as having strong growth potential [15].
自然递减率呈现一定分化，油气供应未来或将更加集中：石油化工行业周报(2025/9/29—2025/10/5)-20251008
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-08 13:46