EBSCN·2025-10-08 13:38Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since January 2025, gold has experienced two rounds of price increases, driven by different factors[2] - The first round (January to April) was initiated by fears of "gold tariffs" and accelerated by the impact of Trump's policies on USD credit[4] - The second round (since August) began with a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve and was further accelerated by the European debt crisis and Trump's interference with Fed independence[6] Group 2: Key Variables Supporting Gold Price Increase - Variable 1: The U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about fiscal sustainability and debt credit, potentially extending beyond historical averages[16] - Variable 2: Political changes in Japan and France have weakened confidence in sovereign currencies, increasing demand for gold[26] - Variable 3: Significant inflows into gold ETFs from the U.S. and Europe indicate a shift in risk appetite from central banks to private investors[36] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - During the National Day holiday, gold prices surged, with COMEX futures exceeding $4000 per ounce, reflecting heightened risk perceptions[13] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in October reached 92.5%, further driving gold demand[22] - The average gold return during past government shutdowns exceeding 10 days has been positive, indicating a historical pattern that may repeat[21]