电子行业周报：重视本土晶圆代工的估值扩张，推理需求激化存储涨价周期-20251008

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the electronic industry [1][10][37]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the valuation expansion of domestic wafer foundries and predicts a price increase cycle for storage driven by heightened demand [1]. - The NAND market is expected to experience a simultaneous increase in volume and price due to rising AI inference demand, with a forecasted average price increase of approximately 5-10% for NAND Flash products by Q4 2025 [2]. - China's wafer fab capacity is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% from 2024 to 2028, significantly outpacing the global average of 5.3% [3]. - The completion of the shareholding reform of Changjiang Storage Technology Co., Ltd. marks a significant milestone, with plans for expansion expected to boost orders for domestic semiconductor equipment companies [4]. - Alibaba Cloud is accelerating its transformation into a full-stack AI service provider, indicating a strong growth trajectory in AI infrastructure investments [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the electronic sector increased by 3.51%, with semiconductors leading at a 7.64% rise [11]. NAND Market Outlook - The NAND Flash market is experiencing a recovery in prices due to increased enterprise-level demand and supply constraints, with a forecasted price increase of 5-10% [2]. Wafer Fab Capacity Growth - China's wafer fab capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% from 2024 to 2028, with mainstream node capacity projected to increase from 25% to 42% of global capacity [3]. Company Developments - Changjiang Storage's shareholding reform is complete, and its new phase of expansion is anticipated to enhance domestic semiconductor equipment orders [4]. - Alibaba Cloud is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with a three-year plan involving 380 billion yuan [7]. Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as 德明利, 江波龙, and 中芯国际 due to their strong market positions and growth potential [1][2][3][4][7].