类权益月报：轮动的盛宴-20251008

Market Overview - In September, the market experienced fluctuations but maintained a bullish trend, with the CSI All A Shares Index rising by 2.80% and the Convertible Bond Index increasing by 1.97% for the month[7][10]. - The market faced a significant adjustment from September 2-4, primarily due to weakened expectations for market stability and a breakdown in the tech sector's consensus, particularly in AI computing and semiconductors[7][10]. Investment Themes - The underlying logic supporting the bull market remains intact, driven by stability, technology, and anti-involution narratives, with a new factor emerging: the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[2][22]. - High elasticity themes with medium to long-term narratives, such as solid-state batteries, energy storage, and robotics, are favored by the market, while themes closely tied to domestic demand are less attractive[2][35][43]. Convertible Bonds - Despite a divergence in sentiment between on-market and off-market funds, convertible bonds still present upward opportunities, supported by ongoing stock performance and a persistent demand for yield[3][51]. - The valuation of convertible bonds has shown volatility, with a significant portion of trading days in September experiencing declines, indicating a challenging environment for investors[3][51]. Strategy Recommendations - The current market strategy should focus on thematic investments, particularly in high-growth technology sectors and those benefiting from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, such as non-ferrous metals[3][49]. - For convertible bonds, maintaining a controlled position while actively participating in the rotation of high-equity varieties is recommended, especially in sectors like technology and those benefiting from anti-involution and rate cut narratives[3][66].