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塑料PP每日早盘观察-20251009
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-09 00:34

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The decrease in net imports of domestic polyethylene and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports for three consecutive months are favorable for the L - PP spread, while the narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - The increase in Brent crude oil and domestic PE production has a negative impact on the L and L - PP spread respectively [5]. - The increase in the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI are favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - Downstream demand is in the peak season, but there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Situation - 25 - 10 - 09: L2601 contract closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. PP2601 contract closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Different regions have different price ranges for LLDPE and PP [1]. - 25 - 09 - 30: L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. The price ranges in different regions are similar to the previous report [4]. - 25 - 09 - 29: L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. Different regions have corresponding price ranges [6]. - 25 - 09 - 19: In the plastic spot market, prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. In the PP spot market, prices in different regions were either weak or stable [8]. Important Information - 25 - 10 - 09: The US federal government shut down due to the breakdown of the appropriation negotiation between the Trump administration and Congress, with an estimated weekly economic loss of about $15 billion [1]. - 25 - 09 - 30: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added value and promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation [4]. - 25 - 09 - 29: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petroleum and chemical industry carried out quality improvement work, and many enterprises strengthened full - process quality control [6]. - 25 - 09 - 19: The PE and PP maintenance ratios increased by 3.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous period [8]. Logical Analysis - 25 - 10 - 09: In August, the net import of domestic polyethylene decreased, and the difference between polyethylene and polypropylene imports decreased for three consecutive months, which is favorable for the L - PP spread. The narrowing increase in global stock market capitalization in July is unfavorable for polyolefin single - side trading [1]. - 25 - 09 - 30: Since September, the increase in Brent crude oil is unfavorable for L, and the increase in domestic PE production in August is unfavorable for the L - PP spread [5]. - 25 - 09 - 29: As of last week, the number of L and PP futures registered warehouse receipts changed, and the recovery of the US manufacturing PMI in August is favorable for L single - side trading [6]. - 25 - 09 - 19: The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the supply side's maintenance is still at a high level, and there are new capacity release expectations for both PE and PP. Considering the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies [8]. Trading Strategies - 25 - 10 - 09: Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract. Consider intervening in the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set a stop - loss at the low on the 26th. Wait and see for options [2]. - 25 - 09 - 30: Control the open - position inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the high on Monday. Wait and see for spreads and options [5]. - 25 - 09 - 29: Try to go long on the L and PP main 01 contracts at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at the low last Friday. Wait and see for spreads and options [7]. - 25 - 09 - 19: Due to the rising oil price at the near - end cost, the short - term price of plastic and PP fluctuates, and the medium - term idea is to go short on rallies. Wait and see for spreads and options [9].